Share this page Print

Forecasting typical outputs

New or infrequent clients are often unsure of what Forecasting can provide. Here's a summary of the typical outputs. If you do not see what you require for your transportation project here, or have questions, then please contact us at tranplanforecast@calgary.ca.

Transit demand

Forecasting can provide estimates of future transit demand in a given scenario. These outputs can be in the form of boarding/alighting by station or passengers on a transit line or segment.

Auto volumes and turn movements

This data makes up the bulk of requests for forecasts. Using the Scenario Series, we can forecast the amount of traffic on major roads, and the number of vehicles making turns at intersections of major roads. Typically Forecasting provides information for AM and PM peak hours from the 10 and 20 year horizons from the Series.

Average daily traffic (ADT)

Forecasting can provide forecasts of future 24-hour weekday volumes on a section of road. This is commonly used for sound barrier (noise wall) design, although noise wall design is now using AM and PM peak hour volumes as well, depending on the road classification.

Select link

For a given section of roadway, or "link", Forecasting can provide a plot showing the routes used by those vehicles entering or leaving the link. This type of output is commonly used to analyze the use of a particular road.

Select zone

For a given transportation zone, Forecasting can provide a plot showing where vehicles are destined for or originating from and what routes they used. This type of output is commonly used to analyze the distribution pattern of the traffic associated with a particular zone.

Origin destination table

For a select Link or select zone, or for all trips in a horizon for the entire RTM network, a matrix tabulating the number of trips can also be created. In order to simplify these results, the individual transportation zones are combined into a smaller number of "superzones". Typically clients create their own superzones to use for their request.

Traversal

A boundary can be selected around an area. Forecasting can then create a matrix describing the origin and destination locations for all trips within that bounded area. This is commonly used for weaving analysis.

Commercial vehicles

The percentage of trucks can be determined as part of any request type. (Most frequently, Forecasting are asked for truck percentages on ADT forecasts). Trucks have different performance characteristics than regular cars, (for example, they are slower, they put heavier loads on pavement, they are noisier, etc.) so knowing the percentage of trucks in traffic can be useful for certain applications.

Mode share

The mode share (the percentage of travellers using each mode of transportation) can be determined as part of a request. This is typically done for a particular transportation zone and is useful in determining how travel demand is accommodated. The available modes are:

  • Walk/Bike
  • Transit
  • Light, Medium, and Heavy Truck
  • High Occupancy Vehicle
  • Single Occupant Vehicle

Scenario assumptions

Forecasting is often asked for the background data and assumptions that were used as inputs the various horizons. These inputs fall into three general but distinct areas.

  1. Land Use: The population and jobs for future horizon years are estimated by City-Wide Planning. These totals are allocated to transportation zones for use in the scenarios. The assumed land use is the key determinant for future travel demand.
  2. Network: Assumptions regarding future transit and road improvements are provided by the TIIP, CTP, Calgary Transit, Alberta Transportation, and Transportation Planning.
  3. Policy: Assumptions about city transportation policies such as parking fees are another important input to the future scenarios. Sources include CTP, Calgary Transit, Transportation Planning.

To see what is currently assumed for each horizon, go to the Current Scenario Series page.

The Land Use and Travel Report

This report describes a time series of scenarios that investigate land use and travel in Calgary and the Region between 2006 and the long term future (approximately 65 years). It documents scenario input assumptions and the travel response that may occur should the Municipal Development Plan (MDP), the Calgary Transportation Plan (CTP), and the Calgary Metropolitan Plan (CMP) be implemented as approved. This technical report is intended to inform and prompt discussion and to be used as a reference for those who seek to understand and implement the MDP, CTP, and CMP.