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Ward 1 News: Fall 2015 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook 2015-2020

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Corporate Economics

Fall 2015
 
Calgary and Region
Economic Outlook 2015-2020

FORECAST
City of Calgary

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• Calgary’s population will grow to 1.312 million by 2018 and 1.367 million in 2020, up from 1.231 million in 2015. Total population would increase by 135,600 over the 2015-2020 period or by 27,100 annually. Net migration would be the main driver of population growth.

• The overall growth statistic (of 135,600) masks the shifts in the population distribution among different age groups over the 2015-2020 period. The largest population increases would occur in the 35-39 age group (24,000) and the 45-49 age group (19,800). These cohorts correspond with those groups that have high migration rates. While small changes would be seen in the 25-29 age group (200) and the 20-24 age group (-4,200).

• The value of building permits will moderate over the forecast period in response to slower growth in demand for residential and non-residential space and higher vacancy rates in various sectors of the real estate market.
Calgary Economic Region (CER)

• Sharply lower oil prices will weigh on the CER’s economic growth in 2015. All sectors of the economy will be adversely affected as the energy and related sectors reduce capital expenditures and staffing levels. The local economy will contract by 0.2 per cent in 2015, down from 5.1 per cent growth in 2014.

• The CER’s unemployment rate rose to 5.1 per cent in 2014, up from 4.8 per cent in 2013. Slower job creation in Calgary would push the unemployment rate to 6.0 per cent in 2015 and 6.1 per cent in 2016.

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This content represents the personal views and opinions of the Councillor and should not be taken as a statement of policy of The City of Calgary. The inclusion of any external content does not imply endorsement by The City of Calgary.

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