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Forecasting

The Forecasting Division of Calgary's Transportation Planning business unit is responsible for forecasting travel. Forecasting's primary task is to predict the volume of traffic there will be in different areas of the City and region in the future.

But this is a simplification. We also attempt to predict

• What the mode split (how many drivers, how many passengers, how many transit users) will be on the roads in the future;
• Where bottlenecks and congestion will occur; and 
• What the percentage of truck traffic will be.

Forecasting aids the City's decision-makers by showing the consequences of land-use and policy decisions on the transportation network.

Forecasting's main model, (which models Calgary and the surrounding region) is known as the Regional Transportation Model, or RTM. To create the RTM, Forecasting incorporates the most up-to-date estimates, trends and predictions from other divisions within The City.

This data includes

• Survey data on all aspects of trips made by residents of Calgary and the surrounding area;
• Estimates of what the growth in population and the number of jobs in Calgary and the surrounding region will be in the future;
• Predictions as to where and when road improvements will be made. Note that the model can show where problems will occur; by solving problems with road improvements, new problems may be created in other areas that also need to be solved... which the model can assist in determining;
• Estimates of future funding available from various City, Provincial, Federal and other sources;
• Myriad other assumptions that go into the model, such as future fuel and transit ticket prices, the location of schools and the amount of green space in a neighbourhood.

Forecasting uses this model, as well as other modeling tools and data sources to provide data and analysis for

• Predicting future transportation facility needs...
• The land development process...
• Evaluating transportation network operations...
• ...and the evaluation of strategic land use and network options.

Other responsibilities

In addition to this, Forecasting is also responsible for designing and administering travel surveys and maintaining travel databases -- this data is one of the key sources of information for the RTM. Forecasting also maintains and keeps the RTM calibrated and up-to-date.