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Population Outlook
Population Outlook is updated once a year and published in our fall version of the Calgary and Region Economic Outlook.
Population Outlook Forecasts
Forecast Tables from Fall 2021 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook 2021-2026
Table 4 - City of Calgary Population Projection
| FORECAST COMPLETED: September 2021 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Estimate 2020 | Forecast 2021 | Forecast 2022 | Forecast 2023 | Forecast 2024 | Forecast 2025 | Forecast 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Population (as April) | 1,235.2 | 1,246.3 | 1,267.3 | 1,285.7 | 1,306.4 | 1,323.7 | 1,341.6 | 1,360.1 | 1,378.7 | 1,396.6 | 1,414.4 |
| Total Population Growth Rate (April - March) | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Total Net Migration (April - March) | -6.5 | 1.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 9.9 |
| Total Births (April - March) | 16.6 | 16.3 | 15.9 | 15.3 | 15.6 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.7 |
| Total Deaths (April - March) | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 7.9 |
| Total Natural Increase (April - March) | 10.7 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 7.8 |
| Total Households (as April) | 463.7 | 471.2 | 482.7 | 489.1 | 496.7 | 503.3 | 510.1 | 517.4 | 524.6 | 531.7 | 538.6 |
| Total Household Formation (April - March) | 1.2 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 6.9 |
| Population by 5-year Cohorts | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Estimate 2020 | Forecast 2021 | Forecast 2022 | Forecast 2023 | Forecast 2024 | Forecast 2025 | Forecast 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | 78.6 | 78.7 | 79.2 | 79.7 | 79.6 | 79.5 | 79.0 | 78.9 | 78.2 | 78.4 | 78.2 |
| 5-9 | 77.0 | 79.1 | 80.2 | 80.0 | 79.3 | 78.7 | 78.8 | 79.0 | 79.5 | 79.4 | 79.3 |
| 10-14 | 67.4 | 69.2 | 71.9 | 74.6 | 77.0 | 79.0 | 80.5 | 80.9 | 80.6 | 79.9 | 79.3 |
| 15-19 | 68.2 | 68.7 | 69.6 | 70.9 | 70.8 | 71.2 | 72.0 | 74.0 | 76.2 | 78.5 | 80.6 |
| 20-24 | 79.1 | 77.5 | 77.0 | 78.2 | 78.9 | 78.6 | 78.3 | 77.8 | 77.7 | 77.5 | 78.0 |
| 25-29 | 104.3 | 102.5 | 100.1 | 98.1 | 97.4 | 94.5 | 92.8 | 92.3 | 92.4 | 92.6 | 92.6 |
| 30-34 | 114.0 | 114.3 | 114.0 | 113.0 | 113.8 | 114.4 | 113.7 | 112.6 | 111.6 | 110.0 | 107.6 |
| 35-39 | 102.8 | 104.6 | 107.8 | 110.8 | 115.8 | 118.9 | 121.5 | 123.1 | 123.6 | 123.8 | 124.6 |
| 40-44 | 95.3 | 95.3 | 96.6 | 98.2 | 101.8 | 105.3 | 109.2 | 113.6 | 118.4 | 122.8 | 126.1 |
| 45-49 | 86.6 | 87.7 | 90.1 | 91.3 | 93.2 | 95.0 | 96.5 | 98.5 | 101.3 | 104.6 | 108.2 |
| 50-54 | 88.2 | 86.4 | 85.2 | 83.9 | 84.0 | 84.9 | 87.3 | 90.0 | 92.0 | 93.7 | 95.6 |
| 55-59 | 81.0 | 81.6 | 82.6 | 83.2 | 83.1 | 82.9 | 82.1 | 81.1 | 80.4 | 80.4 | 81.4 |
| 60-64 | 62.1 | 65.0 | 69.1 | 72.1 | 73.9 | 75.4 | 76.5 | 76.7 | 77.2 | 77.3 | 77.0 |
| 65-69 | 46.0 | 48.2 | 50.2 | 52.5 | 55.2 | 58.3 | 61.4 | 64.7 | 67.3 | 69.2 | 70.6 |
| 70-74 | 29.7 | 31.4 | 34.7 | 37.8 | 40.1 | 42.8 | 45.1 | 46.4 | 48.2 | 50.8 | 53.7 |
| 75-79 | 21.7 | 22.2 | 23.5 | 24.9 | 25.8 | 27.0 | 28.3 | 30.7 | 33.1 | 35.3 | 37.6 |
| 80-84 | 16.7 | 16.9 | 17.4 | 17.6 | 17.7 | 18.0 | 18.5 | 19.3 | 20.2 | 21.1 | 22.1 |
| 85-89 | 10.8 | 11.1 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 12.9 |
| 90-99 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 8.5 |
| 100+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
|
Total |
1,235.2 |
1,246.3 |
1,267.3 |
1,285.7 |
1,306.4 |
1,323.7 |
1,341.6 |
1,360.1 |
1,378.7 |
1,396.6 |
1,414.4 |
| Population by 5-year Cohorts | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Estimate 2020 | Forecast 2021 | Forecast 2022 | Forecast 2023 | Forecast 2024 | Forecast 2025 | Forecast 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youth (12-18) | 80.1 | 81.5 | 83.4 | 85.1 | 86.7 | 89.4 | 91.9 | 94.2 | 95.9 | 97.1 | 97.6 |
| Primary School Age 6-17 | 168.7 | 173.3 | 177.7 | 180.7 | 182.9 | 185.1 | 187.0 | 189.1 | 190.7 | 192.4 | 192.6 |
| Working Age 15-65 | 881.5 | 883.4 | 892.2 | 899.7 | 912.7 | 921.1 | 929.9 | 939.9 | 950.7 | 961.2 | 971.7 |
| Seniors 65+ | 130.6 | 136.0 | 143.9 | 151.6 | 157.9 | 165.4 | 173.4 | 181.5 | 189.7 | 197.8 | 205.9 |
| Super Seniors 85+ | 16.5 | 17.2 | 18.1 | 18.9 | 19.1 | 19.4 | 20.0 | 20.5 | 20.9 | 21.4 | 21.8 |
| Female Super Seniors 85+ | 10.6 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 12.1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 13.0 | 13.3 | 13.7 | 14.0 |
| Average Age |
36.8 |
37.0 |
37.2 |
37.5 |
37.6 |
37.9 |
38.1 |
38.4 |
38.6 |
38.9 |
39.1 |
Numbers may not add up due to rounding
Table 5 - Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) Population Projection
| FORECAST COMPLETED: September 2021 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Estimate 2020 | Forecast 2021 | Forecast 2022 | Forecast 2023 | Forecast 2024 | Forecast 2025 | Forecast 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Population (July) | 1,414.0 | 1,438.2 | 1,458.3 | 1,483.5 | 1,514.0 | 1,533.4 | 1,553.8 | 1,578.1 | 1,601.8 | 1,621.4 | 1,640.5 |
| Total Population Growth Rate (July 1 - June 30) | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Total Net Migration (July-June) | 19.6 | 11.6 | 17.3 | 23.3 | 21.7 | 9.8 | 11.0 | 15.3 | 15.1 | 11.3 | 11.4 |
| Net Migration 18-24 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Net Migration 28-40 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Total Births | 19.3 | 18.3 | 18.0 | 17.4 | 17.3 | 17.7 | 17.5 | 17.4 | 17.3 | 17.2 | 17.1 |
| Total Deaths | 6.4 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 9.4 |
| Total Natural Increase | 13.0 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 7.7 |
| Population by 5-year Cohorts | 2019 | Estimate 2020 | Forecast 2021 | Forecast 2022 | Forecast 2023 | Forecast 2024 | Forecast 2025 | Forecast 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | 90.3 | 91.5 | 91.4 | 91.2 | 90.8 | 90.5 | 89.5 | 89.3 | 89.1 | 89.2 | 88.5 |
| 5-9 | 89.2 | 92.4 | 93.4 | 93.7 | 93.9 | 93.8 | 94.7 | 95.3 | 95.7 | 95.3 | 95.1 |
| 10-14 | 78.8 | 81.4 | 84.2 | 87.6 | 90.9 | 93.9 | 96.2 | 97.8 | 98.4 | 98.4 | 98.4 |
| 15-19 | 80.9 | 81.7 | 82.2 | 83.3 | 84.9 | 85.8 | 87.4 | 90.8 | 94.5 | 97.5 | 100.6 |
| 20-24 | 94.0 | 92.6 | 91.5 | 91.7 | 93.4 | 93.1 | 92.8 | 93.3 | 94.1 | 94.6 | 95.6 |
| 25-29 | 119.0 | 118.2 | 115.4 | 114.0 | 112.4 | 108.4 | 105.8 | 105.0 | 104.9 | 105.0 | 105.0 |
| 30-34 | 128.1 | 129.7 | 129.6 | 129.2 | 129.6 | 128.9 | 127.2 | 125.4 | 123.7 | 120.3 | 116.7 |
| 35-39 | 116.1 | 119.3 | 122.7 | 126.9 | 131.2 | 133.6 | 135.2 | 135.9 | 135.4 | 134.6 | 134.2 |
| 40-44 | 108.5 | 109.2 | 110.7 | 113.0 | 116.4 | 119.5 | 122.8 | 126.8 | 130.9 | 134.5 | 137.0 |
| 45-49 | 99.0 | 101.0 | 103.3 | 105.3 | 107.2 | 109.0 | 110.2 | 111.9 | 114.0 | 116.8 | 120.0 |
| 50-54 | 100.6 | 99.0 | 97.5 | 96.4 | 96.0 | 96.7 | 99.2 | 101.8 | 104.0 | 105.7 | 107.6 |
| 55-59 | 92.5 | 93.8 | 94.9 | 96.0 | 97.0 | 97.1 | 96.2 | 95.0 | 94.1 | 93.7 | 94.3 |
| 60-64 | 70.6 | 74.5 | 79.2 | 83.0 | 86.7 | 89.3 | 91.3 | 92.5 | 93.8 | 94.6 | 94.7 |
| 65-69 | 52.3 | 55.4 | 57.6 | 60.5 | 64.8 | 68.6 | 73.0 | 77.6 | 81.3 | 84.5 | 87.0 |
| 70-74 | 33.5 | 35.7 | 39.7 | 43.5 | 47.1 | 50.8 | 54.0 | 56.1 | 58.7 | 62.3 | 66.0 |
| 75-79 | 24.1 | 24.9 | 26.2 | 28.0 | 30.0 | 31.7 | 33.8 | 37.4 | 40.9 | 43.8 | 47.2 |
| 80-84 | 18.4 | 18.7 | 19.1 | 19.7 | 20.3 | 20.8 | 21.6 | 22.7 | 24.2 | 25.8 | 27.2 |
| 85-89 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 13.0 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 13.7 | 14.0 | 14.3 | 14.7 | 15.2 |
| 90+ | 6.3 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 10.4 |
|
Total |
1,414.0 |
1,438.2 |
1,458.3 |
1,483.5 |
1,514.0 |
1,533.4 |
1,553.8 |
1,578.1 |
1,601.8 |
1,621.4 |
1,640.5 |
| Average Age |
36.6 |
36.7 |
37.0 |
37.3 |
37.6 |
37.8 |
38.1 |
38.4 |
38.6 |
38.9 |
39.2 |
Numbers may not add up due to rounding
Table 6 - Calgary Economic Region (CER) Population Projection
| FORECAST COMPLETED: September 2021 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Estimate 2020 | Forecast 2021 | Forecast 2022 | Forecast 2023 | Forecast 2024 | Forecast 2025 | Forecast 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Population (as April) | 1,547.1 | 1,567.8 | 1,593.2 | 1,624.5 | 1,654.5 | 1,679.3 | 1,705.7 | 1,738.4 | 1,770.7 | 1,797.0 | 1,822.7 |
| Total Population Growth Rate (April - March) | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Total Net Migration (April - March) | 13.3 | 9.2 | 14.7 | 21.4 | 20.4 | 10.8 | 11.8 | 16.2 | 16.1 | 12.2 | 12.0 |
| Total Births (April - March) | 19.8 | 19.1 | 18.8 | 18.2 | 18.1 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.1 | 19.2 | 19.4 | 19.5 |
| Total Deaths (April - March) | 7.1 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 11.7 |
| Total Natural Increase (April - March) | 12.7 | 11.5 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 7.8 |
| Population by 5-year Cohorts | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Estimate 2020 | Forecast 2021 | Forecast 2022 | Forecast 2023 | Forecast 2024 | Forecast 2025 | Forecast 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | 78.6 | 78.7 | 79.2 | 79.7 | 79.6 | 79.5 | 79.0 | 78.9 | 78.2 | 78.4 | 78.2 |
| 5-9 | 77.0 | 79.1 | 80.2 | 80.0 | 79.3 | 78.7 | 78.8 | 79.0 | 79.5 | 79.4 | 79.3 |
| 10-14 | 67.4 | 69.2 | 71.9 | 74.6 | 77.0 | 79.0 | 80.5 | 80.9 | 80.6 | 79.9 | 79.3 |
| 15-19 | 68.2 | 68.7 | 69.6 | 70.9 | 70.8 | 71.2 | 72.0 | 74.0 | 76.2 | 78.5 | 80.6 |
| 20-24 | 79.1 | 77.5 | 77.0 | 78.2 | 78.9 | 78.6 | 78.3 | 77.8 | 77.7 | 77.5 | 78.0 |
| 25-29 | 104.3 | 102.5 | 100.1 | 98.1 | 97.4 | 94.5 | 92.8 | 92.3 | 92.4 | 92.6 | 92.6 |
| 30-34 | 114.0 | 114.3 | 114.0 | 113.0 | 113.8 | 114.4 | 113.7 | 112.6 | 111.6 | 110.0 | 107.6 |
| 35-39 | 102.8 | 104.6 | 107.8 | 110.8 | 115.8 | 118.9 | 121.5 | 123.1 | 123.6 | 123.8 | 124.6 |
| 40-44 | 95.3 | 95.3 | 96.6 | 98.2 | 101.8 | 105.3 | 109.2 | 113.6 | 118.4 | 122.8 | 126.1 |
| 45-49 | 86.6 | 87.7 | 90.1 | 91.3 | 93.2 | 95.0 | 96.5 | 98.5 | 101.3 | 104.6 | 108.2 |
| 50-54 | 88.2 | 86.4 | 85.2 | 83.9 | 84.0 | 84.9 | 87.3 | 90.0 | 92.0 | 93.7 | 95.6 |
| 55-59 | 81.0 | 81.6 | 82.6 | 83.2 | 83.1 | 82.9 | 82.1 | 81.1 | 80.4 | 80.4 | 81.4 |
| 60-64 | 62.1 | 65.0 | 69.1 | 72.1 | 73.9 | 75.4 | 76.5 | 76.7 | 77.2 | 77.3 | 77.0 |
| 65-69 | 46.0 | 48.2 | 50.2 | 52.5 | 55.2 | 58.3 | 61.4 | 64.7 | 67.3 | 69.2 | 70.6 |
| 70-74 | 29.7 | 31.4 | 34.7 | 37.8 | 40.1 | 42.8 | 45.1 | 46.4 | 48.2 | 50.8 | 53.7 |
| 75-79 | 21.7 | 22.2 | 23.5 | 24.9 | 25.8 | 27.0 | 28.3 | 30.7 | 33.1 | 35.3 | 37.6 |
| 80-84 | 16.7 | 16.9 | 17.4 | 17.6 | 17.7 | 18.0 | 18.5 | 19.3 | 20.2 | 21.1 | 22.1 |
| 85-89 | 10.8 | 11.1 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 12.9 |
| 90-99 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 8.5 |
| 100+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
|
Total |
1,235.2 |
1,246.3 |
1,267.3 |
1,285.7 |
1,306.4 |
1,323.7 |
1,341.6 |
1,360.1 |
1,378.7 |
1,396.6 |
1,414.4 |
| Youth (12-18) | 80.1 | 81.5 | 83.4 | 85.1 | 86.7 | 89.4 | 91.9 | 94.2 | 95.9 | 97.1 | 97.6 |
| Primary School Age 6-17 | 168.7 | 173.3 | 177.7 | 180.7 | 182.9 | 185.1 | 187.0 | 189.1 | 190.7 | 192.4 | 192.6 |
| Working Age 15-65 | 881.5 | 883.4 | 892.2 | 899.7 | 912.7 | 921.1 | 929.9 | 939.9 | 950.7 | 961.2 | 971.7 |
| Seniors 65+ | 130.6 | 136.0 | 143.9 | 151.6 | 157.9 | 165.4 | 173.4 | 181.5 | 189.7 | 197.8 | 205.9 |
| Super Seniors 85+ | 16.5 | 17.2 | 18.1 | 18.9 | 19.1 | 19.4 | 20.0 | 20.5 | 20.9 | 21.4 | 21.8 |
| Female Super Seniors 85+ | 10.6 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 12.1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 13.0 | 13.3 | 13.7 | 14.0 |
| Average Age |
36.8 |
37.0 |
37.2 |
37.5 |
37.6 |
37.9 |
38.1 |
38.4 |
38.6 |
38.9 |
39.1 |
Numbers may not add up due to rounding