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Population Outlook


​​Population Outlook is updated once a year and published in our fall version of the Calgary and Region Economic Outlook.

Population Outlook Forecasts

Forecast Tables from Fall 2021 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook 2021-2026

Table 4 - City of Calgary Population Projection

(thousands of persons)
FORECAST COMPLETED: September 2021 2016 2017 2018 2019 Estimate 2020 Forecast   2021 Forecast   2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026
Total Population (as April) 1,235.2 1,246.3 1,267.3 1,285.7 1,306.4 1,323.7 1,341.6 1,360.1 1,378.7 1,396.6 1,414.4
Total Population Growth Rate (April - March) 0.3 0.9 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3
Total Net Migration (April - March) -6.5 1.1 11.7 9.6 12.3 8.6 9.0 9.9 10.2 9.8 9.9
Total Births (April - March) 16.6 16.3 15.9 15.3 15.6 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.7
Total Deaths (April - March) 5.9 6.2 6.6 6.5 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.9
Total Natural Increase (April - March) 10.7 10.1 9.3 8.8 8.4 8.7 8.8 8.7 8.4 8.1 7.8
Total Households (as April) 463.7 471.2 482.7 489.1 496.7 503.3 510.1 517.4 524.6 531.7 538.6
Total Household Formation (April - March) 1.2 7.5 11.6 6.3 7.7 6.6 6.8 7.3 7.3 7.0 6.9
Population by 5-year Cohorts  2016 2017 2018 2019 Estimate 2020 Forecast   2021 Forecast   2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026
0-4 78.6 78.7 79.2 79.7 79.6 79.5 79.0 78.9 78.2 78.4 78.2
5-9 77.0 79.1 80.2 80.0 79.3 78.7 78.8 79.0 79.5 79.4 79.3
10-14 67.4 69.2 71.9 74.6 77.0 79.0 80.5 80.9 80.6 79.9 79.3
15-19 68.2 68.7 69.6 70.9 70.8 71.2 72.0 74.0 76.2 78.5 80.6
20-24 79.1 77.5 77.0 78.2 78.9 78.6 78.3 77.8 77.7 77.5 78.0
25-29 104.3 102.5 100.1 98.1 97.4 94.5 92.8 92.3 92.4 92.6 92.6
30-34 114.0 114.3 114.0 113.0 113.8 114.4 113.7 112.6 111.6 110.0 107.6
35-39 102.8 104.6 107.8 110.8 115.8 118.9 121.5 123.1 123.6 123.8 124.6
40-44 95.3 95.3 96.6 98.2 101.8 105.3 109.2 113.6 118.4 122.8 126.1
45-49 86.6 87.7 90.1 91.3 93.2 95.0 96.5 98.5 101.3 104.6 108.2
50-54 88.2 86.4 85.2 83.9 84.0 84.9 87.3 90.0 92.0 93.7 95.6
55-59 81.0 81.6 82.6 83.2 83.1 82.9 82.1 81.1 80.4 80.4 81.4
60-64 62.1 65.0 69.1 72.1 73.9 75.4 76.5 76.7 77.2 77.3 77.0
65-69 46.0 48.2 50.2 52.5 55.2 58.3 61.4 64.7 67.3 69.2 70.6
70-74 29.7 31.4 34.7 37.8 40.1 42.8 45.1 46.4 48.2 50.8 53.7
75-79 21.7 22.2 23.5 24.9 25.8 27.0 28.3 30.7 33.1 35.3 37.6
80-84 16.7 16.9 17.4 17.6 17.7 18.0 18.5 19.3 20.2 21.1 22.1
85-89 10.8 11.1 11.6 11.8 11.8 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.6 12.9
90-99 5.5 5.9 6.3 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.6 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.5
100+ 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Total

1,235.2

1,246.3

1,267.3

1,285.7

1,306.4

1,323.7

1,341.6

1,360.1

1,378.7

1,396.6

1,414.4

Population by 5-year Cohorts  2016 2017 2018 2019 Estimate  2020 Forecast   2021 Forecast   2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026
Youth (12-18) 80.1 81.5 83.4 85.1 86.7 89.4 91.9 94.2 95.9 97.1 97.6
Primary School Age 6-17 168.7 173.3 177.7 180.7 182.9 185.1 187.0 189.1 190.7 192.4 192.6
Working Age 15-65 881.5 883.4 892.2 899.7 912.7 921.1 929.9 939.9 950.7 961.2 971.7
Seniors 65+ 130.6 136.0 143.9 151.6 157.9 165.4 173.4 181.5 189.7 197.8 205.9
Super Seniors 85+ 16.5 17.2 18.1 18.9 19.1 19.4 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.4 21.8
Female Super Seniors 85+ 10.6 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.0
Average Age

36.8

37.0

37.2

37.5

37.6

37.9

38.1

38.4

38.6

38.9

39.1

Numbers may not add up due to rounding

Table 5 - Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) Population Projection

(thousands of persons)
FORECAST COMPLETED: September 2021 2016 2017 2018 2019 Estimate 2020 Forecast   2021 Forecast   2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026
Total Population (July) 1,414.0 1,438.2 1,458.3 1,483.5 1,514.0 1,533.4 1,553.8 1,578.1 1,601.8 1,621.4 1,640.5
Total Population Growth Rate (July 1 - June 30) 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.7 2.1 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.2
Total Net Migration (July-June) 19.6 11.6 17.3 23.3 21.7 9.8 11.0 15.3 15.1 11.3 11.4
Net Migration 18-24 3.8 3.6 4.5 5.5 5.1 2.4 2.7 3.7 3.7 2.8 2.8
Net Migration 28-40 5.1 2.5 4.8 6.3 6.7 2.6 2.9 4.1 4.0 3.0 3.0
Total Births 19.3 18.3 18.0 17.4 17.3 17.7 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.2 17.1
Total Deaths  6.4 6.9 7.3 7.5 7.7 8.2 8.1 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.4
Total Natural Increase  13.0 11.4 10.7 10.0 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.1 8.6 8.3 7.7
Population by 5-year Cohorts  2019 Estimate 2020 Forecast   2021 Forecast   2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026
0-4 90.3 91.5 91.4 91.2 90.8 90.5 89.5 89.3 89.1 89.2 88.5
5-9 89.2 92.4 93.4 93.7 93.9 93.8 94.7 95.3 95.7 95.3 95.1
10-14 78.8 81.4 84.2 87.6 90.9 93.9 96.2 97.8 98.4 98.4 98.4
15-19 80.9 81.7 82.2 83.3 84.9 85.8 87.4 90.8 94.5 97.5 100.6
20-24 94.0 92.6 91.5 91.7 93.4 93.1 92.8 93.3 94.1 94.6 95.6
25-29 119.0 118.2 115.4 114.0 112.4 108.4 105.8 105.0 104.9 105.0 105.0
30-34 128.1 129.7 129.6 129.2 129.6 128.9 127.2 125.4 123.7 120.3 116.7
35-39 116.1 119.3 122.7 126.9 131.2 133.6 135.2 135.9 135.4 134.6 134.2
40-44 108.5 109.2 110.7 113.0 116.4 119.5 122.8 126.8 130.9 134.5 137.0
45-49 99.0 101.0 103.3 105.3 107.2 109.0 110.2 111.9 114.0 116.8 120.0
50-54 100.6 99.0 97.5 96.4 96.0 96.7 99.2 101.8 104.0 105.7 107.6
55-59 92.5 93.8 94.9 96.0 97.0 97.1 96.2 95.0 94.1 93.7 94.3
60-64 70.6 74.5 79.2 83.0 86.7 89.3 91.3 92.5 93.8 94.6 94.7
65-69 52.3 55.4 57.6 60.5 64.8 68.6 73.0 77.6 81.3 84.5 87.0
70-74 33.5 35.7 39.7 43.5 47.1 50.8 54.0 56.1 58.7 62.3 66.0
75-79 24.1 24.9 26.2 28.0 30.0 31.7 33.8 37.4 40.9 43.8 47.2
80-84 18.4 18.7 19.1 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.6 22.7 24.2 25.8 27.2
85-89 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.2
90+ 6.3 6.8 7.2 7.6 8.1 8.6 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.0 10.4

Total

1,414.0

1,438.2

1,458.3

1,483.5

1,514.0

1,533.4

1,553.8

1,578.1

1,601.8

1,621.4

1,640.5

Average Age

36.6

36.7

37.0

37.3

37.6

37.8

38.1

38.4

38.6

38.9

39.2

Numbers may not add up due to rounding

Table 6 - Calgary Economic Region (CER) Population Projection

(thousands of persons)
FORECAST COMPLETED: September 2021 2016 2017 2018 2019 Estimate 2020 Forecast   2021 Forecast   2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026
Total Population (as April) 1,547.1 1,567.8 1,593.2 1,624.5 1,654.5 1,679.3 1,705.7 1,738.4 1,770.7 1,797.0 1,822.7
Total Population Growth Rate (April - March) 1.7 1.3 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.4
Total Net Migration (April - March) 13.3 9.2 14.7 21.4 20.4 10.8 11.8 16.2 16.1 12.2 12.0
Total Births (April - March) 19.8 19.1 18.8 18.2 18.1 19.0 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.4 19.5
Total Deaths (April - March) 7.1 7.6 8.1 8.3 8.6 10.3 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.3 11.7
Total Natural Increase (April - March) 12.7 11.5 10.6 10.0 9.6 8.7 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.1 7.8
Population by 5-year Cohorts  2016 2017 2018 2019 Estimate 2020 Forecast   2021 Forecast   2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026
0-4 78.6 78.7 79.2 79.7 79.6 79.5 79.0 78.9 78.2 78.4 78.2
5-9 77.0 79.1 80.2 80.0 79.3 78.7 78.8 79.0 79.5 79.4 79.3
10-14 67.4 69.2 71.9 74.6 77.0 79.0 80.5 80.9 80.6 79.9 79.3
15-19 68.2 68.7 69.6 70.9 70.8 71.2 72.0 74.0 76.2 78.5 80.6
20-24 79.1 77.5 77.0 78.2 78.9 78.6 78.3 77.8 77.7 77.5 78.0
25-29 104.3 102.5 100.1 98.1 97.4 94.5 92.8 92.3 92.4 92.6 92.6
30-34 114.0 114.3 114.0 113.0 113.8 114.4 113.7 112.6 111.6 110.0 107.6
35-39 102.8 104.6 107.8 110.8 115.8 118.9 121.5 123.1 123.6 123.8 124.6
40-44 95.3 95.3 96.6 98.2 101.8 105.3 109.2 113.6 118.4 122.8 126.1
45-49 86.6 87.7 90.1 91.3 93.2 95.0 96.5 98.5 101.3 104.6 108.2
50-54 88.2 86.4 85.2 83.9 84.0 84.9 87.3 90.0 92.0 93.7 95.6
55-59 81.0 81.6 82.6 83.2 83.1 82.9 82.1 81.1 80.4 80.4 81.4
60-64 62.1 65.0 69.1 72.1 73.9 75.4 76.5 76.7 77.2 77.3 77.0
65-69 46.0 48.2 50.2 52.5 55.2 58.3 61.4 64.7 67.3 69.2 70.6
70-74 29.7 31.4 34.7 37.8 40.1 42.8 45.1 46.4 48.2 50.8 53.7
75-79 21.7 22.2 23.5 24.9 25.8 27.0 28.3 30.7 33.1 35.3 37.6
80-84 16.7 16.9 17.4 17.6 17.7 18.0 18.5 19.3 20.2 21.1 22.1
85-89 10.8 11.1 11.6 11.8 11.8 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.6 12.9
90-99 5.5 5.9 6.3 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.6 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.5
100+ 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Total

1,235.2

1,246.3

1,267.3

1,285.7

1,306.4

1,323.7

1,341.6

1,360.1

1,378.7

1,396.6

1,414.4

Youth (12-18) 80.1 81.5 83.4 85.1 86.7 89.4 91.9 94.2 95.9 97.1 97.6
Primary School Age 6-17 168.7 173.3 177.7 180.7 182.9 185.1 187.0 189.1 190.7 192.4 192.6
Working Age 15-65 881.5 883.4 892.2 899.7 912.7 921.1 929.9 939.9 950.7 961.2 971.7
Seniors 65+ 130.6 136.0 143.9 151.6 157.9 165.4 173.4 181.5 189.7 197.8 205.9
Super Seniors 85+ 16.5 17.2 18.1 18.9 19.1 19.4 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.4 21.8
Female Super Seniors 85+ 10.6 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.0
                     
Average Age

36.8

37.0

37.2

37.5

37.6

37.9

38.1

38.4

38.6

38.9

39.1

Numbers may not add up due to rounding

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