Economic Outlook and Population Outlook
Calgary & Region Economic Outlook
The City of Calgary monitors and forecasts key indicators for the local economy and publishes the results twice a year in the spring and the fall. These forecasts assist the municipal government in its financial and physical planning for Calgary.
Calgary should avoid a recession in 2023 and achieve the coveted soft landing. However, the prime lending rate is now at its highest in over two decades after the Bank of Canada’s efforts to tame rapid consumer inflation with multiple interest rate increases.
Many households and businesses are unfamiliar with navigating the new higher interest rate environment. In addition, there are fewer people with experience to call upon, given the ongoing increase in baby boomer retirements, to forge the right path forward. The uncertainty will affect the conviction to deploy capital and investment levels, including residential home ownership investment decisions.
The supply of workers should remain strong because of the record migration to Calgary between 2022 and 2023. However, the imbalance between the skills employers seek and those available in the job market would sustain wage increases into 2023. Strong (but unspectacular) energy prices, labour supply, wage growth and earnings should support strong consumer spending and a resilient economy.
Publications on Calgary & Region Economic Outlook
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2022-2027: Fall 2022
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2022-2027: Spring 2022
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2021-2026: Fall 2021
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2021-2026: Spring 2021
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2020-2025: Fall 2020
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2020-2025: Spring 2020
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2019-2024: Fall 2019
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2019-2024: Spring 2019
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2018-2023: Fall 2018
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2018-2023: Spring 2018
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2017-2026: Fall 2017
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2017-2022: Spring 2017
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2016-2021: Fall 2016
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2015-2020: Fall 2015
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2015-2020: Spring 2015
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2014-2019: Fall 2014
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2014-2024: Spring 2014
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2013-2018: Fall 2013
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2013-2018: Spring 2013
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2012-2017: Fall 2012
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2012-2017: Spring 2012
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2011-2016: Second Quarter 2011
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2011-2016: First Quarter 2011
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2010-2015: Fourth Quarter 2010
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2010-2015: Second Quarter 2010
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2010-2015: First Quarter 2010
- Calgary's Economic Outlook Fourth Quarter 2009
- Calgary's Economic Outlook Second Quarter 2009
- Calgary's Economic Outlook First Quarter 2009
Population Outlook
Population Outlook is updated in April 2023 and published in our Spring 2023 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook.
Population Outlook Forecasts
Forecast Tables from Spring 2023 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook 2023-2028
Table 4 - City of Calgary Population Projection
FORECAST COMPLETED: April 2023
2018 | 2019 | Estimate 2020 * | Estimate 2021 * | Estimate 2022 * | Forecast 2023 | Forecast 2024 | Forecast 2025 | Forecast 2026 | Forecast 2027 | Forecast 2028 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Population (as of April 1) | 1,267.3 | 1,285.7 | 1,307.0 | 1,321.6 | 1,348.6 | 1,389.2 | 1,412.9 | 1,434.2 | 1,455.5 | 1,476.6 | 1,497.6 |
Total
Population Growth Rate (April - March) |
1.7 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Total Net Migration (April - March) | 11.7 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 6.1 | 19.7 | 33.1 | 15.8 | 13.7 | 14.1 | 14.4 | 14.7 |
Total Births (April - March) | 15.9 | 15.3 | 15.6 | 15.8 | 15.3 | 15.4 | 15.6 | 15.5 | 15.4 | 15.2 | 15.1 |
Total Deaths (April - March) | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.8 |
Total Natural Increase (April - March) | 9.3 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 6.3 |
Total Households (as of April 1) | 482.7 | 489.1 | 496.7 | 502.4 | 512.8 | 528.4 | 537.6 | 545.9 | 554.3 | 562.5 | 570.7 |
Total Household Formation (April - March) | 11.6 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 10.4 | 15.6 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.2 |
* Estimate (no Civic Census)
Population by 5-year Cohorts | 2018 | 2019 | Estmate 2020 * | Estmate 2021 * | Estmate 2022 * | Forecast 2023 | Forecast 2024 | Forecast 2025 | Forecast 2026 | Forecast 2027 | Forecast 2028 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0-4 | 79.2 | 79.7 | 79.6 | 79.0 | 79.0 | 79.6 | 79.2 | 78.8 | 78.1 | 78.1 | 77.9 |
5-9 | 80.2 | 80.0 | 79.3 | 81.5 | 82.0 | 82.8 | 83.4 | 83.6 | 83.9 | 83.7 | 83.8 |
10-14 | 71.9 | 74.6 | 77.0 | 77.8 | 79.8 | 82.7 | 84.3 | 85.5 | 86.5 | 87.0 | 86.8 |
15-19 | 69.6 | 70.9 | 70.8 | 72.6 | 74.9 | 78.3 | 79.4 | 81.6 | 84.1 | 85.8 | 87.8 |
20-24 | 77.0 | 78.2 | 78.9 | 79.7 | 81.0 | 85.4 | 86.3 | 86.2 | 85.9 | 87.0 | 88.2 |
25-29 | 100.1 | 98.1 | 97.4 | 97.3 | 97.4 | 99.4 | 99.2 | 98.9 | 99.2 | 99.0 | 99.3 |
30-34 | 114.0 | 113.0 | 113.8 | 114.3 | 114.8 | 118.0 | 116.7 | 115.1 | 114.1 | 113.3 | 111.5 |
35-39 | 107.8 | 110.8 | 115.8 | 114.8 | 117.9 | 121.4 | 123.7 | 125.2 | 125.1 | 125.1 | 125.7 |
40-44 | 96.6 | 98.2 | 101.8 | 102.8 | 106.3 | 111.2 | 115.2 | 118.2 | 121.7 | 124.3 | 126.1 |
45-49 | 90.1 | 91.3 | 93.2 | 93.9 | 95.8 | 98.5 | 100.3 | 103.0 | 106.2 | 109.5 | 113.1 |
50-54 | 85.2 | 83.9 | 84.0 | 86.5 | 86.8 | 86.9 | 89.1 | 91.3 | 93.0 | 95.0 | 97.7 |
55-59 | 82.6 | 83.2 | 83.1 | 83.9 | 84.2 | 84.1 | 83.6 | 83.9 | 84.4 | 85.0 | 85.4 |
60-64 | 69.1 | 72.1 | 73.9 | 74.9 | 76.9 | 79.0 | 80.6 | 81.1 | 81.6 | 82.1 | 82.3 |
65-69 | 50.2 | 52.5 | 55.2 | 56.4 | 60.2 | 63.5 | 66.8 | 70.1 | 73.1 | 75.0 | 77.1 |
70-74 | 34.7 | 37.8 | 40.2 | 41.2 | 43.4 | 46.8 | 50.4 | 52.4 | 54.8 | 58.2 | 61.1 |
75-79 | 23.5 | 24.9 | 25.8 | 26.9 | 28.8 | 31.3 | 32.6 | 35.6 | 38.5 | 40.5 | 43.2 |
80-84 | 17.4 | 17.6 | 17.9 | 18.5 | 19.4 | 20.1 | 21.1 | 21.9 | 23.2 | 24.8 | 26.6 |
85-89 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 12.0 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 13.6 | 14.3 | 14.7 |
90-99 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 9.1 |
100+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
Total |
1,267.3 |
1,285.7 |
1,307.0 |
1,321.6 |
1,348.6 |
1,389.2 |
1,412.9 |
1,434.2 |
1,455.5 |
1,476.6 |
1,497.6 |
* Estimate (no Civic Census)
2018 | 2019 | Estmate 2020 * | Estmate 2021 * | Estmate 2022 * | Forecast 2023 | Forecast 2024 | Forecast 2025 | Forecast 2026 | Forecast 2027 | Forecast 2028 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Youth (12-17 inclusive) | 83.4 | 85.1 | 86.7 | 89.1 | 91.5 | 95.8 | 98.7 | 100.6 | 102.4 | 104.3 | 105.9 |
Primary School Age (6-17 inclusive) | 177.7 | 180.7 | 182.9 | 186.2 | 190.4 | 196.4 | 199.5 | 201.8 | 204.1 | 206.7 | 207.8 |
Working Age (15-64 inclusive) | 892.2 | 899.7 | 912.7 | 920.6 | 936.1 | 962.2 | 974.1 | 984.4 | 995.1 | 1,006.1 | 1,017.0 |
Seniors 65+ | 143.9 | 151.6 | 158.4 | 162.7 | 171.6 | 181.9 | 191.8 | 201.9 | 211.9 | 221.8 | 232.1 |
Super Seniors 85+ | 18.1 | 18.9 | 19.3 | 19.8 | 19.8 | 20.2 | 20.9 | 21.8 | 22.4 | 23.4 | 24.0 |
Female Super Seniors 85+ | 11.5 | 12.0 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 13.6 | 13.9 | 14.5 | 14.8 |
Average Age |
37.7 |
38.0 |
38.2 |
38.3 |
38.4 |
38.6 |
38.8 |
39.1 |
39.3 |
39.6 |
39.9 |
* Estimate (no Civic Census)
Numbers may not add up due to rounding
Table 5 - Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) Population Projection
FORECAST COMPLETED: April 2023
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Forecast 2023 | Forecast 2024 | Forecast 2025 | Forecast 2026 | Forecast 2027 | Forecast 2028 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Population (as of July 1) | 1,483.5 | 1,514.4 | 1,543.0 | 1,558.6 | 1,608.3 | 1,661.6 | 1,702.2 | 1,736.3 | 1,767.3 | 1,798.5 | 1,830.2 |
Total
Population Growth Rate (July 1 - June 30) |
1.7 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Total Net Migration (July-June) | 14.7 | 20.9 | 19.3 | 7.7 | 42.2 | 45.1 | 31.8 | 25.5 | 22.7 | 23.2 | 23.9 |
Net Migration 18-24 (July-June) | 4.3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 8.4 | 10.8 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.2 |
Net Migration 28-40 (July-June) | 4.1 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 11.8 | 15.3 | 10.8 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 7.9 |
Total Births (July-June) | 17.9 | 17.3 | 17.0 | 16.6 | 16.9 | 17.2 | 17.7 | 18.0 | 18.1 | 18.2 | 18.3 |
Total Deaths (July-June) | 7.4 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 10.6 |
Total Natural Increase (July-June) | 10.5 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 7.7 |
Population by 5-year Cohorts | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Forecast 2023 | Forecast 2024 | Forecast 2025 | Forecast 2026 | Forecast 2027 | Forecast 2028 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0-4 | 91.2 | 90.9 | 89.8 | 87.1 | 87.6 | 87.4 | 87.7 | 88.5 | 89.7 | 90.8 | 92.0 |
5-9 | 93.7 | 93.9 | 94.0 | 94.5 | 97.2 | 98.9 | 99.2 | 98.4 | 96.6 | 95.4 | 94.5 |
10-14 | 87.6 | 90.9 | 94.0 | 95.7 | 98.9 | 100.8 | 101.8 | 102.6 | 104.1 | 105.3 | 106.1 |
15-19 | 83.3 | 84.9 | 86.5 | 87.1 | 91.9 | 97.3 | 101.0 | 104.4 | 106.9 | 108.7 | 109.5 |
20-24 | 91.7 | 93.5 | 94.7 | 94.6 | 97.8 | 104.2 | 107.6 | 109.2 | 110.0 | 111.8 | 114.5 |
25-29 | 114.0 | 112.4 | 110.3 | 107.4 | 110.9 | 117.1 | 121.3 | 124.1 | 125.9 | 127.2 | 128.7 |
30-34 | 129.2 | 129.7 | 130.9 | 129.3 | 131.3 | 135.0 | 135.7 | 135.1 | 135.4 | 136.8 | 138.8 |
35-39 | 126.9 | 131.2 | 134.6 | 136.4 | 139.8 | 142.7 | 144.7 | 146.8 | 147.7 | 148.2 | 149.1 |
40-44 | 113.0 | 116.4 | 120.2 | 123.7 | 129.6 | 136.1 | 141.7 | 145.7 | 148.7 | 150.5 | 151.5 |
45-49 | 105.3 | 107.2 | 109.3 | 110.5 | 113.5 | 116.7 | 120.7 | 125.2 | 130.0 | 135.1 | 140.2 |
50-54 | 96.4 | 96.0 | 96.7 | 99.1 | 102.4 | 104.5 | 106.3 | 108.4 | 110.2 | 112.7 | 115.9 |
55-59 | 96.0 | 97.0 | 97.2 | 96.1 | 95.5 | 94.4 | 93.8 | 94.6 | 97.3 | 100.1 | 102.5 |
60-64 | 83.0 | 86.7 | 89.3 | 91.0 | 92.8 | 94.0 | 94.8 | 94.9 | 94.1 | 93.2 | 92.4 |
65-69 | 60.5 | 64.8 | 68.9 | 73.1 | 78.4 | 82.5 | 85.8 | 88.2 | 90.0 | 91.1 | 92.3 |
70-74 | 43.5 | 47.1 | 51.0 | 54.2 | 56.7 | 59.9 | 63.9 | 67.9 | 72.2 | 76.5 | 80.0 |
75-79 | 28.0 | 30.0 | 32.0 | 34.1 | 37.9 | 41.7 | 44.9 | 48.4 | 51.5 | 53.6 | 56.1 |
80-84 | 19.7 | 20.4 | 21.1 | 22.0 | 23.2 | 24.9 | 26.7 | 28.2 | 30.1 | 33.2 | 36.2 |
85-89 | 13.0 | 13.3 | 13.6 | 13.9 | 14.1 | 14.5 | 15.2 | 15.8 | 16.6 | 17.5 | 18.7 |
90+ | 7.6 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 11.1 |
Total |
1,483.5 |
1,514.4 |
1,543.0 |
1,558.6 |
1,608.3 |
1,661.6 |
1,702.2 |
1,736.3 |
1,767.3 |
1,798.5 |
1,830.2 |
Average Age |
37.8 |
38.1 |
38.4 |
38.7 |
38.8 |
38.9 |
39.1 |
39.3 |
39.6 |
39.8 |
40.0 |
Numbers may not add up due to rounding
Table 6 - Calgary Economic Region (CER) Population Projection
FORECAST COMPLETED: April 2023
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Forecast 2023 | Forecast 2024 | Forecast 2025 | Forecast 2026 | Forecast 2027 | Forecast 2028 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Population (as of July 1) | 1,593.2 | 1,624.9 | 1,654.0 | 1,669.8 | 1,720.6 | 1,775.2 | 1,817.3 | 1,852.4 | 1,884.3 | 1,916.4 | 1,949.0 |
Total
Population Growth Rate (July 1 - June 30) |
1.6 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
Total Net Migration (July-June) | 14.7 | 21.5 | 19.8 | 7.8 | 43.3 | 46.7 | 33.4 | 26.7 | 23.7 | 24.2 | 25.1 |
Total Births (July-June) | 18.8 | 18.3 | 17.9 | 17.5 | 17.8 | 18.0 | 18.5 | 18.7 | 18.9 | 19.0 | 19.1 |
Total Deaths (July-June) | 8.1 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 10.7 | 11.1 | 11.6 |
Total Natural Increase (July-June) | 10.6 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 7.5 |
Population by 5-year Cohorts | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Forecast 2023 | Forecast 2024 | Forecast 2025 | Forecast 2026 | Forecast 2027 | Forecast 2028 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0-4 | 97.0 | 96.6 | 95.5 | 92.5 | 93.1 | 93.0 | 93.2 | 93.8 | 94.6 | 95.4 | 96.5 |
5-9 | 100.9 | 100.9 | 101.1 | 101.5 | 104.2 | 106.0 | 106.4 | 105.5 | 103.6 | 102.3 | 101.3 |
10-14 | 95.4 | 98.9 | 102.1 | 103.8 | 107.0 | 108.9 | 109.8 | 110.5 | 112.1 | 113.2 | 113.9 |
15-19 | 90.4 | 92.2 | 93.8 | 94.6 | 99.7 | 105.3 | 109.2 | 112.9 | 115.5 | 117.2 | 118.0 |
20-24 | 97.4 | 99.3 | 100.6 | 100.6 | 103.9 | 110.2 | 113.8 | 115.5 | 116.8 | 119.1 | 122.2 |
25-29 | 119.4 | 118.0 | 115.9 | 112.9 | 116.3 | 122.7 | 127.0 | 129.9 | 131.8 | 133.3 | 135.0 |
30-34 | 135.2 | 135.6 | 136.8 | 135.2 | 137.2 | 141.2 | 142.1 | 141.6 | 142.1 | 143.5 | 145.5 |
35-39 | 133.9 | 138.1 | 141.3 | 142.8 | 145.9 | 148.6 | 150.6 | 152.9 | 153.9 | 154.6 | 155.8 |
40-44 | 120.3 | 123.5 | 127.3 | 130.7 | 136.4 | 142.8 | 148.3 | 152.1 | 155.0 | 156.8 | 157.6 |
45-49 | 113.0 | 114.7 | 116.6 | 117.7 | 120.6 | 123.7 | 127.7 | 132.1 | 136.7 | 141.8 | 146.8 |
50-54 | 104.1 | 103.5 | 104.3 | 106.7 | 110.1 | 112.2 | 113.9 | 115.9 | 117.5 | 119.9 | 123.0 |
55-59 | 104.4 | 105.4 | 105.4 | 104.0 | 103.2 | 101.9 | 101.3 | 102.2 | 104.9 | 107.8 | 110.2 |
60-64 | 90.8 | 94.6 | 97.3 | 99.1 | 100.9 | 102.1 | 103.0 | 102.9 | 101.9 | 100.7 | 99.8 |
65-69 | 66.9 | 71.5 | 75.9 | 80.4 | 86.0 | 90.4 | 93.8 | 96.3 | 98.1 | 99.3 | 100.4 |
70-74 | 48.6 | 52.6 | 56.6 | 60.2 | 62.9 | 66.3 | 70.6 | 75.0 | 79.6 | 84.2 | 87.8 |
75-79 | 31.2 | 33.5 | 35.7 | 38.0 | 42.3 | 46.4 | 49.9 | 53.7 | 57.1 | 59.3 | 62.1 |
80-84 | 21.7 | 22.5 | 23.3 | 24.4 | 25.8 | 27.7 | 29.6 | 31.4 | 33.5 | 36.9 | 40.2 |
85-89 | 14.2 | 14.6 | 15.0 | 15.2 | 15.5 | 16.0 | 16.7 | 17.5 | 18.4 | 19.4 | 20.7 |
90+ | 8.3 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 11.7 | 12.2 |
Total |
1,593.2 |
1,624.9 |
1,654.0 |
1,669.8 |
1,720.6 |
1,775.2 |
1,817.3 |
1,852.4 |
1,884.3 |
1,916.4 |
1,949.0 |
Average Age |
38.0 |
38.3 |
38.5 |
38.9 |
39.0 |
39.1 |
39.3 |
39.5 |
39.8 |
40.0 |
40.2 |
Numbers may not add up due to rounding
Contact us
For general inquiries, please email: Corporate.Economics@calgary.ca