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Economic Outlook and Population Outlook

Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2023-2028

View Fall 2023 Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2023-2028

Calgary & Region Economic Outlook

The City of Calgary monitors and forecasts key indicators for the local economy and publishes the results twice a year in the spring and the fall. These forecasts assist the municipal government in its financial and physical planning for Calgary.

Calgary should expect resilient economic growth in 2023, supported by robust crude oil production and exports in the province, strong energy sector cashflows, and solid consumer spending and residential investment driven by population growth.

However, the prime lending rate is now at its highest in over two decades after the Bank of Canada’s efforts to tame rapid consumer inflation with multiple interest rate increases. The elevated interest rate environment will weigh on the investment intentions of businesses and residential home ownership investment decisions.

The supply of workers should remain strong because of the record migration to Calgary between 2022 and 2023. However, the imbalance between the skills employers seek and those available in the job market would sustain wage increases into 2023. Strong (but unspectacular) energy prices, labour supply, wage growth and earnings should support strong consumer spending and a resilient economy.

Publications on Calgary & Region Economic Outlook

Population Outlook

Population Outlook is updated in April 2023 and published in our Spring 2023 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook.

Population Outlook Forecasts

Forecast Tables from Spring 2023 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook 2023-2028

Table 4 - City of Calgary Population Projection

FORECAST COMPLETED: April 2023

(thousands of persons)
2018 2019 Estimate  2020 * Estimate   2021 * Estimate  2022 * Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026 Forecast   2027 Forecast   2028
Total Population (as of April 1) 1,267.3 1,285.7 1,307.0 1,321.6 1,348.6 1,389.2 1,412.9 1,434.2 1,455.5 1,476.6 1,497.6
Total Population Growth Rate
(April - March) 		1.7 1.4 1.7 1.1 2.0 3.0 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4
Total Net Migration (April - March) 11.7 9.6 12.3 6.1 19.7 33.1 15.8 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.7
Total Births (April - March) 15.9 15.3 15.6 15.8 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.5 15.4 15.2 15.1
Total Deaths (April - March) 6.6 6.5 6.6 7.4 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.5 8.8
Total Natural Increase (April - March) 9.3 8.8 9.0 8.4 7.3 7.5 7.9 7.6 7.2 6.7 6.3
Total Households (as of April 1) 482.7 489.1 496.7 502.4 512.8 528.4 537.6 545.9 554.3 562.5 570.7
Total Household Formation (April - March) 11.6 6.3 7.7 5.6 10.4 15.6 9.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.2

* Estimate (no Civic Census)

Population by 5-year Cohorts  2018    2019       Estmate   2020 * Estmate    2021 * Estmate   2022 * Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026 Forecast   2027 Forecast   2028
0-4 79.2 79.7 79.6 79.0 79.0 79.6 79.2 78.8 78.1 78.1 77.9
5-9 80.2 80.0 79.3 81.5 82.0 82.8 83.4 83.6 83.9 83.7 83.8
10-14 71.9 74.6 77.0 77.8 79.8 82.7 84.3 85.5 86.5 87.0 86.8
15-19 69.6 70.9 70.8 72.6 74.9 78.3 79.4 81.6 84.1 85.8 87.8
20-24 77.0 78.2 78.9 79.7 81.0 85.4 86.3 86.2 85.9 87.0 88.2
25-29 100.1 98.1 97.4 97.3 97.4 99.4 99.2 98.9 99.2 99.0 99.3
30-34 114.0 113.0 113.8 114.3 114.8 118.0 116.7 115.1 114.1 113.3 111.5
35-39 107.8 110.8 115.8 114.8 117.9 121.4 123.7 125.2 125.1 125.1 125.7
40-44 96.6 98.2 101.8 102.8 106.3 111.2 115.2 118.2 121.7 124.3 126.1
45-49 90.1 91.3 93.2 93.9 95.8 98.5 100.3 103.0 106.2 109.5 113.1
50-54 85.2 83.9 84.0 86.5 86.8 86.9 89.1 91.3 93.0 95.0 97.7
55-59 82.6 83.2 83.1 83.9 84.2 84.1 83.6 83.9 84.4 85.0 85.4
60-64 69.1 72.1 73.9 74.9 76.9 79.0 80.6 81.1 81.6 82.1 82.3
65-69 50.2 52.5 55.2 56.4 60.2 63.5 66.8 70.1 73.1 75.0 77.1
70-74 34.7 37.8 40.2 41.2 43.4 46.8 50.4 52.4 54.8 58.2 61.1
75-79 23.5 24.9 25.8 26.9 28.8 31.3 32.6 35.6 38.5 40.5 43.2
80-84 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.5 19.4 20.1 21.1 21.9 23.2 24.8 26.6
85-89 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.3 12.5 12.9 13.4 13.6 14.3 14.7
90-99 6.3 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.7 8.1 8.5 8.8 9.1
100+ 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Total

1,267.3

1,285.7

1,307.0

1,321.6

1,348.6

1,389.2

1,412.9

1,434.2

1,455.5

1,476.6

1,497.6

* Estimate (no Civic Census)

2018 2019 Estmate   2020 * Estmate    2021 * Estmate   2022 * Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026 Forecast   2027 Forecast   2028
Youth (12-17 inclusive) 83.4 85.1 86.7 89.1 91.5 95.8 98.7 100.6 102.4 104.3 105.9
Primary School Age (6-17 inclusive) 177.7 180.7 182.9 186.2 190.4 196.4 199.5 201.8 204.1 206.7 207.8
Working Age (15-64 inclusive) 892.2 899.7 912.7 920.6 936.1 962.2 974.1 984.4 995.1 1,006.1 1,017.0
Seniors 65+ 143.9 151.6 158.4 162.7 171.6 181.9 191.8 201.9 211.9 221.8 232.1
Super Seniors 85+ 18.1 18.9 19.3 19.8 19.8 20.2 20.9 21.8 22.4 23.4 24.0
Female Super Seniors 85+ 11.5 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.5 14.8
               
Average Age

37.7

38.0

38.2

38.3

38.4

38.6

38.8

39.1

39.3

39.6

39.9

* Estimate (no Civic Census)

Numbers may not add up due to rounding

Table 5 - Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) Population Projection

FORECAST COMPLETED: April 2023

(thousands of persons)
2018 2019 2020  2021 2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026 Forecast   2027 Forecast   2028
Total Population (as of July 1) 1,483.5 1,514.4 1,543.0 1,558.6 1,608.3 1,661.6 1,702.2 1,736.3 1,767.3 1,798.5 1,830.2
Total Population Growth Rate
(July 1 - June 30) 		1.7 2.1 1.9 1.0 3.2 3.3 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8
Total Net Migration (July-June) 14.7 20.9 19.3 7.7 42.2 45.1 31.8 25.5 22.7 23.2 23.9
Net Migration 18-24 (July-June) 4.3 5.4 4.8 2.8 8.4 10.8 7.5 5.7 4.9 4.9 5.2
Net Migration 28-40 (July-June) 4.1 5.6 6.2 2.6 11.8 15.3 10.8 8.5 7.5 7.6 7.9
Total Births (July-June) 17.9 17.3 17.0 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.7 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.3
Total Deaths (July-June) 7.4 7.3 7.8 8.7 9.3 9.1 9.0 9.3 9.7 10.2 10.6
Total Natural Increase (July-June) 10.5 10.0 9.2 7.9 7.6 8.1 8.8 8.6 8.3 8.0 7.7
Population by 5-year Cohorts  2018 2019  2020  2021 2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026 Forecast   2027 Forecast   2028
0-4 91.2 90.9 89.8 87.1 87.6 87.4 87.7 88.5 89.7 90.8 92.0
5-9 93.7 93.9 94.0 94.5 97.2 98.9 99.2 98.4 96.6 95.4 94.5
10-14 87.6 90.9 94.0 95.7 98.9 100.8 101.8 102.6 104.1 105.3 106.1
15-19 83.3 84.9 86.5 87.1 91.9 97.3 101.0 104.4 106.9 108.7 109.5
20-24 91.7 93.5 94.7 94.6 97.8 104.2 107.6 109.2 110.0 111.8 114.5
25-29 114.0 112.4 110.3 107.4 110.9 117.1 121.3 124.1 125.9 127.2 128.7
30-34 129.2 129.7 130.9 129.3 131.3 135.0 135.7 135.1 135.4 136.8 138.8
35-39 126.9 131.2 134.6 136.4 139.8 142.7 144.7 146.8 147.7 148.2 149.1
40-44 113.0 116.4 120.2 123.7 129.6 136.1 141.7 145.7 148.7 150.5 151.5
45-49 105.3 107.2 109.3 110.5 113.5 116.7 120.7 125.2 130.0 135.1 140.2
50-54 96.4 96.0 96.7 99.1 102.4 104.5 106.3 108.4 110.2 112.7 115.9
55-59 96.0 97.0 97.2 96.1 95.5 94.4 93.8 94.6 97.3 100.1 102.5
60-64 83.0 86.7 89.3 91.0 92.8 94.0 94.8 94.9 94.1 93.2 92.4
65-69 60.5 64.8 68.9 73.1 78.4 82.5 85.8 88.2 90.0 91.1 92.3
70-74 43.5 47.1 51.0 54.2 56.7 59.9 63.9 67.9 72.2 76.5 80.0
75-79 28.0 30.0 32.0 34.1 37.9 41.7 44.9 48.4 51.5 53.6 56.1
80-84 19.7 20.4 21.1 22.0 23.2 24.9 26.7 28.2 30.1 33.2 36.2
85-89 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.6 17.5 18.7
90+ 7.6 8.2 8.6 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.8 11.1

Total

1,483.5

1,514.4

1,543.0

1,558.6

1,608.3

1,661.6

1,702.2

1,736.3

1,767.3

1,798.5

1,830.2
Average Age

37.8

38.1

38.4

38.7

38.8

38.9

39.1

39.3

39.6

39.8

40.0

Numbers may not add up due to rounding

Table 6 - Calgary Economic Region (CER) Population Projection

FORECAST COMPLETED: April 2023

(thousands of persons)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026 Forecast   2027 Forecast   2028
Total Population (as of July 1) 1,593.2 1,624.9 1,654.0 1,669.8 1,720.6 1,775.2 1,817.3 1,852.4 1,884.3 1,916.4 1,949.0
Total Population Growth Rate
(July 1 - June 30) 		1.6 2.0 1.8 1.0 3.0 3.2 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7
Total Net Migration (July-June) 14.7 21.5 19.8 7.8 43.3 46.7 33.4 26.7 23.7 24.2 25.1
Total Births (July-June) 18.8 18.3 17.9 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.0 19.1
Total Deaths (July-June) 8.1 8.0 8.6 9.6 10.3 10.0 9.8 10.2 10.7 11.1 11.6
Total Natural Increase (July-June) 10.6 10.3 9.4 7.9 7.6 8.0 8.7 8.5 8.2 7.8 7.5
Population by 5-year Cohorts  2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026 Forecast   2027 Forecast   2028
0-4 97.0 96.6 95.5 92.5 93.1 93.0 93.2 93.8 94.6 95.4 96.5
5-9 100.9 100.9 101.1 101.5 104.2 106.0 106.4 105.5 103.6 102.3 101.3
10-14 95.4 98.9 102.1 103.8 107.0 108.9 109.8 110.5 112.1 113.2 113.9
15-19 90.4 92.2 93.8 94.6 99.7 105.3 109.2 112.9 115.5 117.2 118.0
20-24 97.4 99.3 100.6 100.6 103.9 110.2 113.8 115.5 116.8 119.1 122.2
25-29 119.4 118.0 115.9 112.9 116.3 122.7 127.0 129.9 131.8 133.3 135.0
30-34 135.2 135.6 136.8 135.2 137.2 141.2 142.1 141.6 142.1 143.5 145.5
35-39 133.9 138.1 141.3 142.8 145.9 148.6 150.6 152.9 153.9 154.6 155.8
40-44 120.3 123.5 127.3 130.7 136.4 142.8 148.3 152.1 155.0 156.8 157.6
45-49 113.0 114.7 116.6 117.7 120.6 123.7 127.7 132.1 136.7 141.8 146.8
50-54 104.1 103.5 104.3 106.7 110.1 112.2 113.9 115.9 117.5 119.9 123.0
55-59 104.4 105.4 105.4 104.0 103.2 101.9 101.3 102.2 104.9 107.8 110.2
60-64 90.8 94.6 97.3 99.1 100.9 102.1 103.0 102.9 101.9 100.7 99.8
65-69 66.9 71.5 75.9 80.4 86.0 90.4 93.8 96.3 98.1 99.3 100.4
70-74 48.6 52.6 56.6 60.2 62.9 66.3 70.6 75.0 79.6 84.2 87.8
75-79 31.2 33.5 35.7 38.0 42.3 46.4 49.9 53.7 57.1 59.3 62.1
80-84 21.7 22.5 23.3 24.4 25.8 27.7 29.6 31.4 33.5 36.9 40.2
85-89 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.2 15.5 16.0 16.7 17.5 18.4 19.4 20.7
90+ 8.3 9.0 9.4 9.6 9.6 9.9 10.3 10.8 11.3 11.7 12.2

Total

1,593.2

1,624.9

1,654.0

1,669.8

1,720.6

1,775.2

1,817.3

1,852.4

1,884.3

1,916.4

1,949.0
Average Age

38.0

38.3

38.5

38.9

39.0

39.1

39.3

39.5

39.8

40.0

40.2

Numbers may not add up due to rounding

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