The City of Calgary monitors and forecasts key indicators for the local economy and publishes the results twice a year in the spring and the fall. These forecasts assist the municipal government in its financial and physical planning for Calgary. 

Calgary's economy performed better than expected, driven by robust domestic demand due to strong net migration, ongoing infrastructure investment, and USMCA/CUSMA-compliant exports, despite the ongoing uncertainty and volatility from the trade disputes. The region’s unemployment rate is projected at 7.5 per cent in 2025, reflecting the ongoing influx of newcomers seeking work in a competitive labour market. Headline inflation for 2025 has been revised down from 3.0 per cent to 2.2 per cent, reflecting temporary effects of front-loading, inventory hoarding ahead of tariffs, lower gasoline prices, and the removal of the carbon tax. However, inflationary risks remain. Softening market fundamentals, such as slower population growth and rising economic uncertainty, suggest that housing activity could cool in the coming years, despite lower interest rates for businesses and consumers.

Nevertheless, potential headwinds include geopolitical uncertainty, particularly around U.S. trade policy, and a slowdown in net migration in 2025, along with high unemployment, which could impact the pace of growth. Calgary’s economy is predicted to grow at 2.9 per cent, outpacing the provincial and national economies

• Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2025-2030: Fall 2025
  • Executive Summary: Fall 2025
  • Fall 2025 Forecast Tables

Population Outlook is updated in January 2025 and published in our Spring 2025 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook.