Economic Outlook and Population Outlook

Calgary and Region Economic Outlook 2026-2031

View Spring 2026 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook 2026-2031

Calgary & Region Economic Outlook (Spring 2026)

The City of Calgary monitors and forecasts key indicators for the local economy and publishes the results twice a year in the spring and the fall. These forecasts assist the municipal government in its financial and physical planning for Calgary. 

Calgary’s economy is expected to see slower growth from 2026 through 2031 than in the past five-year period. This is largely due to the slowdown in population growth resulting from the Federal government’s changes to immigration policy. Job growth is also expected to slow, although with lower labour supply growth should push the unemployment rate down. With inflation expected to remain low over the period, affordability is expected to improve. However food and energy prices may still present challenges for many households. Significant risks to forecast include higher energy prices, food price volatility, and tariff instability.

Publications on Calgary & Region Economic Outlook

Population Outlook

Population Outlook is updated in January 2026 and published in our Spring 2026 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook.

Population Outlook Forecasts

Forecast Tables from Spring 2026 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook 2026-2031

Table 4 - City of Calgary Population Projection

FORECAST COMPLETED: January 2026

(thousands of persons)
  2021* 2022* 2023* 2024* 2025* 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Total Population (as of April 1) 1,321.6 1,347.8 1,422.2 1,509.8 1,558.7 1,583.2 1,608.7 1,634.8 1,662.3 1,689.4 1,717.6
Total Population Growth Rate (April - March) 1.1 2.0 5.5 6.2 3.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7
Total Net Migration (April - March) 6.1 19.1 66.6 80.2 40.5 15.5 16.9 17.9 19.8 19.9 21.4
Total Births (April - March) 15.8 15.2 15.6 16.2 17.0 18.3 18.2 18.1 18.0 18.0 17.9
Total Deaths (April - March) 7.4 8.0 7.8 8.7 8.6 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.1
Total Natural Increase (April - March) 8.4 7.2 7.7 7.5 8.4 9.0 8.6 8.1 7.7 7.3 6.8
Total Households (as of April 1) 502.4 512.5 541.0 574.5 593.4 603.4 612.5 622.3 632.2 641.7 651.4
Total Household Formation (April - March) 5.6 10.1 28.5 33.6 18.8 10.1 9.1 9.8 10.0 9.5 9.6

* Estimate (no Civic Census)

(thousands of persons)
Population by 5-year Cohorts  2021* 2022* 2023* 2024* 2025* 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
0-4 79.0 79.0 80.9 82.9 83.9 85.2 87.5 89.7 91.7 92.8 92.6
5-9 81.5 82.1 84.8 89.5 91.3 91.5 91.0 90.8 90.2 90.7 92.4
10-14 77.8 79.9 84.3 89.3 92.1 93.7 94.8 95.4 96.8 97.6 98.2
15-19 72.6 74.9 81.3 86.9 89.7 91.3 92.8 94.9 97.1 99.1 101.1
20-24 79.7 80.7 90.5 100.6 103.3 101.1 100.5 100.1 99.5 100.5 102.8
25-29 97.3 97.1 105.6 116.9 121.0 120.6 119.4 118.4 118.1 117.4 116.1
30-34 114.3 114.7 123.2 132.4 135.8 135.6 135.7 134.6 134.7 134.8 135.4
35-39 114.8 117.8 124.9 134.7 140.1 141.1 142.5 144.6 144.8 144.9 145.4
40-44 102.8 106.2 113.1 122.0 127.7 132.0 135.6 138.3 141.5 144.3 145.7
45-49 93.9 95.8 99.1 102.7 106.9 111.2 115.7 120.3 125.1 129.0 133.4
50-54 86.5 86.8 87.1 89.6 92.2 94.2 96.7 100.0 102.8 106.6 110.9
55-59 83.9 84.4 84.2 83.7 84.1 84.8 85.6 86.3 88.8 91.3 93.4
60-64 74.9 77.0 79.5 81.6 82.1 82.4 82.9 83.1 82.8 83.4 84.2
65-69 56.4 60.2 64.1 68.5 72.2 75.0 76.9 78.9 80.5 80.9 81.4
70-74 41.2 43.4 47.3 52.0 54.6 56.9 60.4 63.2 66.4 69.4 72.1
75-79 26.9 28.8 31.6 33.7 37.1 40.1 42.1 45.0 48.1 50.1 52.3
80-84 18.5 19.4 20.3 21.6 22.7 23.9 25.6 27.5 28.7 31.3 33.8
85-89 12.3 12.3 12.5 13.0 13.6 13.7 14.3 14.8 15.5 16.1 17.0
90-99 7.1 7.1 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.8 9.1 9.2
100+ 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Total 1,321.6 1,347.8 1,422.2 1,509.8 1,558.7 1,583.2 1,608.7 1,634.8 1,662.3 1,689.4 1,717.6

* Estimate (no Civic Census)

(thousands of persons)
Population by 5-year Cohorts  2021* 2022* 2023* 2024* 2025* 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Youth (12-17 inclusive) 89.1 91.5 98.1 105.1 108.5 110.4 112.8 115.1 116.8 118.0 119.6
Primary School Age (6-17 inclusive) 186.2 190.5 201.0 212.9 218.9 221.7 224.8 226.4 228.0 229.3 231.4
Working Age (15-64 inclusive) 920.6 935.3 988.6 1,051.2 1,082.9 1,094.5 1,107.4 1,120.7 1,135.3 1,151.2 1,168.3
Seniors 65+ 162.7 171.6 183.7 196.9 208.5 218.3 228.0 238.2 248.2 257.2 266.2
Super Seniors 85+ 19.8 19.8 20.4 21.1 21.9 22.3 23.1 23.6 24.6 25.5 26.6
Female Super Seniors 85+ 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.4 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.3
Average Age 37.8 38.0 37.8 37.7 37.8 38.1 38.3 38.5 38.8 39.0 39.2

* Estimate (no Civic Census)

Numbers may not add up due to rounding

Table 5 - Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) Population Projection

FORECAST COMPLETED: January 2026

(thousands of persons)
  2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Total Population (as of July 1) 1,540.2 1,587.7 1,680.3 1,783.7 1,836.0 1,866.6 1,899.4 1,933.2 1,969.7 2,008.7 2,048.9
Total Population Growth Rate
(July 1 - June 30) 		0.8 3.1 5.8 6.1 2.9 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0
Total Net Migration (July-June) 6.5 39.8 85.1 94.7 43.1 20.9 23.5 24.6 27.5 30.2 31.4
Total Births (July-June) 16.7 16.5 16.8 17.9 18.8 20.3 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.3 21.8
Total Deaths (July-June) 8.5 8.8 9.3 9.3 9.5 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0
Total Natural Increase (July-June) 8.2 7.7 7.6 8.6 9.2 9.7 9.3 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.8
(thousands of persons)
Population by 5-year Cohorts  2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
0-4 88.2 87.9 89.5 91.8 92.9 94.6 96.7 99.3 101.6 103.6 104.5
5-9 95.1 97.5 102.0 106.8 107.1 105.1 103.6 102.0 101.6 102.0 104.5
10-14 95.4 98.1 102.2 106.9 109.1 111.1 112.9 114.1 115.0 115.0 113.9
15-19 87.0 91.4 97.5 104.6 107.2 109.4 112.2 114.1 115.9 118.2 121.0
20-24 94.4 97.5 105.2 114.3 117.5 117.4 118.3 120.7 123.9 127.1 131.2
25-29 106.7 110.6 122.7 135.7 139.6 139.4 140.0 140.9 142.5 144.9 147.1
30-34 126.2 129.1 141.0 151.9 154.5 155.4 157.6 160.1 162.8 165.9 168.2
35-39 132.4 136.0 145.6 156.6 162.1 164.7 166.6 168.9 170.3 171.6 174.4
40-44 120.0 125.5 135.4 146.9 153.5 157.7 160.7 163.3 166.5 170.4 173.8
45-49 107.8 110.0 115.0 122.5 128.2 133.4 138.9 144.5 149.8 154.4 158.5
50-54 98.9 101.8 105.1 108.7 111.3 112.4 114.3 116.9 120.7 124.9 129.6
55-59 95.8 94.9 95.3 96.5 97.9 100.3 102.8 104.3 105.5 106.9 107.7
60-64 90.4 92.2 94.6 96.8 97.4 96.3 95.0 94.1 93.6 94.3 96.5
65-69 71.9 76.8 81.6 85.8 89.1 90.9 92.0 93.0 93.8 93.8 92.9
70-74 53.1 55.5 58.8 63.2 67.5 71.8 75.8 79.0 81.7 84.1 85.7
75-79 33.1 36.9 40.8 44.2 48.0 50.9 52.5 54.7 57.9 61.1 64.9
80-84 21.4 22.5 24.1 25.7 27.5 29.2 32.2 34.9 37.4 40.0 42.3
85-89 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.6 18.5 19.5 20.7
90-99 8.4 8.9 9.2 9.5 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.5 10.6 11.0
100+ 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
Total 1,540.2 1,587.7 1,680.3 1,783.7 1,836.0 1,866.6 1,899.4 1,933.2 1,969.7 2,008.7 2,048.9
Average Age 38.0 38.2 38.1 38.1 38.3 38.5 38.7 38.8 39.0 39.1 39.2

Numbers may not add up due to rounding

Table 6 - Calgary Economic Region (CER) Population Projection

FORECAST COMPLETED: January 2026

(thousands of persons)
  2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Total Population (as of July 1) 1,652.9 1,701.0 1,795.5 1,902.0 1,954.8 1,987.7 2,023.0 2,059.3 2,098.5 2,140.4 2,183.5
Total Population Growth Rate
(July 1 - June 30) 		0.7 2.9 5.6 5.9 2.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0
Total Net Migration (July-June) 6.6 40.6 87.0 97.8 43.6 22.6 25.1 26.2 29.0 31.7 32.9
Total Births (July-June) 17.6 17.4 17.7 18.8 19.8 21.8 22.2 22.7 23.3 23.9 24.6
Total Deaths (July-June) 9.3 9.8 10.2 10.2 10.5 11.6 12.1 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.3
Total Natural Increase (July-June) 8.3 7.6 7.5 8.6 9.3 10.3 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.3
(thousands of persons)
Population by 5-year Cohorts  2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
0-4 93.6 93.2 94.7 97.1 98.2 100.2 103.1 106.7 110.3 113.8 115.8
5-9 102.0 104.4 109.0 113.8 114.0 111.7 109.9 107.9 107.2 107.5 110.3
10-14 103.3 106.0 110.1 114.8 116.9 118.9 120.6 121.7 122.4 122.1 120.7
15-19 94.5 99.3 105.7 113.5 115.9 118.1 120.9 122.7 124.3 126.6 129.4
20-24 99.7 102.9 111.0 121.4 125.3 126.2 127.9 130.9 134.2 137.4 141.5
25-29 111.7 115.6 127.7 141.1 145.1 145.3 146.6 148.2 151.0 154.6 157.7
30-34 132.1 135.0 147.0 157.9 160.4 161.5 163.9 166.6 169.5 172.9 175.6
35-39 139.4 142.8 152.3 163.2 168.5 171.2 173.3 175.7 177.2 178.6 181.6
40-44 127.8 133.1 143.0 154.4 160.8 165.0 168.0 170.6 173.9 177.8 181.3
45-49 115.3 117.6 122.6 130.2 135.8 141.0 146.5 152.1 157.4 162.1 166.2
50-54 106.5 109.4 112.8 116.2 118.7 119.7 121.7 124.3 128.1 132.3 137.1
55-59 103.9 102.7 102.8 103.9 105.3 107.7 110.1 111.6 112.7 114.0 114.7
60-64 98.8 100.7 103.2 105.4 105.7 104.3 102.6 101.3 100.6 101.2 103.3
65-69 79.4 84.6 89.8 94.2 97.6 99.3 100.4 101.2 101.9 101.7 100.4
70-74 59.2 61.7 65.2 69.8 74.5 79.1 83.3 86.8 89.6 92.0 93.6
75-79 37.2 41.4 45.7 49.4 53.4 56.5 58.2 60.5 63.8 67.4 71.5
80-84 23.9 25.1 26.9 28.8 30.7 32.7 36.1 39.1 41.8 44.6 47.0
85-89 15.2 15.6 15.8 16.4 17.0 17.8 18.5 19.7 20.7 21.8 23.2
90-99 9.1 9.6 9.7 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.3 11.6 12.1
100+ 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
Total 1,652.9 1,701.0 1,795.5 1,902.0 1,954.8 1,987.7 2,023.0 2,059.3 2,098.5 2,140.4 2,183.5
Average Age 38.3 38.4 38.4 38.3 38.5 38.7 38.9 39.0 39.1 39.2 39.3

Numbers may not add up due to rounding.

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