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Economic Outlook and Population Outlook

Calgary & Region Economic Outlook



The City of Calgary monitors and forecasts key indicators for the local economy, and the results are published twice a year in the spring and the fall. These forecasts are used to assist the municipal government in its financial and physical planning for the city. 

One year after the double economic impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic and crude oil price collapse, Calgary’s economy is recovering from the first COVID-19 lockdowns. Although the current recovery is uneven in different sectors of the economy, causing the concerns of a K-shaped recovery, the region’s economic activity and total employment are expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2022.

Publications on Calgary & Region Economic Outlook

 

Population Outlook


​​Population Outlook is updated once a year and published in our fall version of the Calgary and Region Economic Outlook.

Population Outlook Forecasts

Forecast table from Fall 2020 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook 2020-2025

Table 4 - City of Calgary Population Projection

City of Calgary (thousands of persons)
FORECAST COMPLETED: September 2020 2017 2018 2019 Estimate 2020 Forecast   2021 Forecast   2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026
Total Population (as April) 1,246.30 1,267.30 1,285.7 1,306.4 1,323.4 1,339.9 1,357.5 1,375.1 1,392.1 1,408.9
Total Population Growth Rate (April - March) 0.9 1.69 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2
Total Net Migration (April - March) 1.1 11.7 9.6 12.3 8.6 9.0 9.9 10.2 9.8 9.9
Total Births (April - March) 16.3 15.9 15.3 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.5 15.5
Total Deaths (April - March) 6.2 6.6 6.5 7.2 7.4 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0
Total Natural Increase (April - March) 10.1 9.3 8.8 8.4 8.3 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.5
Total Households (as April) 471.2 482.7 489.1 496.9 502.1 511.0 518.7 526.6 534.4 541.8
Total Household Formation (April - March) 7.5 11.6 6.3 7.8 5.2 8.9 7.7 7.9 7.8 7.4
Population by 5-year Cohorts  2017 2018 2019 Estimate 2020 Forecast   2021 Forecast   2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026
0-4  78.7   79.2  79.7 79.6 79.3 78.6 78.2 77.3 77.4 77.3
5-9  79.1   80.2  80.0 79.5 78.9 79.0 79.2 79.7 79.4 79.1
10-14  69.2   71.9  74.6 77.1 79.1 80.6 81.0 80.8 80.0 79.5
15-19  68.7   69.6  70.9 70.9 71.3 72.1 74.1 76.3 78.6 80.7
20-24  77.5   77.0  78.2 78.6 78.4 78.1 77.7 77.7 77.6 78.1
25-29  102.5   100.1  98.1 96.8 94.0 92.3 91.9 92.0 92.3 92.4
30-34  114.3   114.0  113.0 113.6 114.1 113.3 112.2 111.1 109.5 107.0
35-39  104.6   107.8  110.8 115.6 118.6 121.3 122.9 123.3 123.5 124.3
40-44  95.3   96.6  98.2 101.8 105.2 109.0 113.5 118.2 122.5 125.8
45-49  87.7   90.1  91.3 93.3 95.1 96.5 98.5 101.2 104.5 108.0
50-54  86.4   85.2  83.9 84.1 85.0 87.3 90.1 92.0 93.7 95.5
55-59  81.6   82.6  83.2 83.5 83.2 82.3 81.2 80.4 80.4 81.3
60-64  65.0   69.1  72.1 74.2 75.7 76.7 76.9 77.3 77.4 77.0
65-69  48.2   50.2  52.5 55.3 58.4 61.5 64.7 67.3 69.2 70.5
70-74  31.4   34.7  37.8 40.2 42.8 45.1 46.3 48.0 50.5 53.4
75-79  22.2   23.5  24.9 25.8 27.0 28.2 30.5 32.8 34.9 37.2
80-84  16.9   17.4  17.6 17.9 18.1 18.4 19.0 19.8 20.6 21.5
85-89  11.1   11.6  11.8 11.9 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.2 12.3
90-99  5.9   6.3  6.8 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.5 7.6
100+  0.2   0.3  0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Total

 1,246.3 

 1,267.3 

1,285.7

1,306.7

1,323.4

1,339.9

1,357.5

1,375.1

1,392.1

1,408.9

Population by 5-year Cohorts  2017 2018 2019 Estimate  2020 Forecast   2021 Forecast   2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026
Youth (12-18) 81.5 83.4 85.1 86.8 89.5 92.0 94.4 96.1 97.2 97.8
Primary School Age 6-17 173.3 177.7 180.7 183.2 185.4 187.4 189.5 191.1 192.8 192.9
Working Age 15-65 883.4 892.2 899.7 912.2 920.5 929.1 938.9 949.6 959.9 970.3
Seniors 65+ 136 143.9 151.6 158.4 165.6 172.6 180.2 187.7 195.3 202.8
Super Seniors 85+  17.2   18.1  18.9 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.8 20.1 20.2
Female Super Seniors 85+  11.0   11.5  12.0 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.7

Numbers may not add up due to rounding

Table 5 - Calgary Economic Region (CER) Population Projection

Calgary Economic Region (thousands of persons)
FORECAST COMPLETED: September 2020 2019 Estimate 2020 Forecast   2021 Forecast   2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026
Total Population (as April) 1,585.9 1,616.4 1,637.3 1,654.4 1,676.2 1,701.4 1,722.0 1,738.5
Total Population Growth Rate (April - March) 1.8 1.9 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.0
Total Net Migration (April - March) 18.8 17.4 10.8 11.8 16.2 16.1 12.2 12.0
Total Births (April - March) 18.6 18.4 18.2 18.1 18.1 18.0 17.9 17.9
Total Deaths (April - March) 9.4 10.1 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.5 11.9
Total Natural Increase (April - March) 9.2 8.3 8.2 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.4 5.9
Total Households (as April) 609.9 621.7 629.7 636.3 644.7 654.4 662.3 668.7
Total Household Formation (April - March) 10.5 11.7 8.0 6.6 8.4 9.7 7.9 6.3
Population by 5-year Cohorts  2019 Estimate 2020 Forecast   2021 Forecast   2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026
0-4 98.5 98.1 97.3 95.7 94.5 92.8 92.3 91.7
5-9 100.7 99.9 99.0 99.0 99.1 99.6 98.9 98.1
10-14 95.2 99.1 102.0 103.6 104.2 104.2 103.1 102.0
15-19 89.8 91.1 92.3 93.8 97.0 100.8 104.2 106.9
20-24 95.3 97.0 97.5 97.4 97.8 99.3 100.1 100.8
25-29 116.1 114.4 110.7 108.0 107.5 108.5 109.3 109.4
30-34 133.8 134.0 133.6 131.3 129.1 127.6 124.8 121.0
35-39 133.6 138.0 140.4 141.8 142.4 142.1 141.4 140.9
40-44 120.1 124.0 127.3 130.7 134.7 139.2 142.9 145.2
45-49 112.2 114.6 116.7 118.2 120.2 123.1 126.5 129.7
50-54 103.7 103.7 104.8 107.5 110.7 113.1 115.0 117.1
55-59 104.1 105.6 105.7 104.8 103.7 102.8 102.6 103.6
60-64 91.1 94.5 97.0 99.1 100.3 101.7 102.9 103.0
65-69 67.1 71.0 75.2 79.4 83.9 87.7 90.6 93.0
70-74 48.7 52.2 55.6 58.8 60.5 63.0 66.5 70.3
75-79 31.5 33.3 35.1 37.0 40.5 43.7 46.7 49.6
80-84 21.6 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.6 26.1 27.4 28.9
85-89 14.3 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.3 15.7 16.1
90-99 8.0 8.7 9.2 9.5 9.9 10.4 10.6 10.7
100+ 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Total

1,585.9

1,616.4

1,637.3

1,654.4

1,676.2

1,701.4

1,722.0

1,738.5

Numbers may not add up due to rounding

Contact us

For general inquiries, please email: Corporate.Economics@calgary.ca

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