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Economic Outlook and Population Outlook

Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2022-2027

View Fall 2022 Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2022-2027

Calgary & Region Economic Outlook


The City of Calgary monitors and forecasts key indicators for the local economy, and the results are published twice a year in the spring and the fall. These forecasts are used to assist the municipal government in its financial and physical planning for the city. 

Calgary is poised for a second and third successive year of positive economic growth in 2022 and 2023. There should be better economic performance in Calgary and other Alberta communities in 2022 and 2023 compared with most of Canada. That's despite the Bank of Canada's efforts to achieve a soft landing for the Canadian economy. Population, jobs, and economic activity are all expected to grow substantially despite a sharp increase in the cost of living. A robust role for the energy sector within the context of the movement to cleaner energy should help drive local and regional growth as oil and natural gas prices remain strong enough through the forecast period to attract capital investment. 

Publications on Calgary & Region Economic Outlook

 

Population Outlook

Population Outlook is updated in April 2022 and published in our Spring 2022 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook.

Population Outlook Forecasts

Forecast Tables from Spring 2022 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook 2022-2027

Table 4 - City of Calgary Population Projection

FORECAST COMPLETED: April 2022

(thousands of persons)
2017 2018 2019 Estimate 2020 Estimate  2021 Forecast   2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026 Forecast   2027
Total Population (as of April) 1,246.3 1,267.3 1,285.7 1,306.4 1,321.3 1,343.5 1,366.2 1,388.9 1,409.7 1,431.5 1,454.4

Total Population Growth Rate (April-March)

 0.9 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.6
Total Net Migration (April-March) 1.1 11.7 9.6 12.3 6.1 13.7 14.1 14.1 12.3 13.4 14.7
Total Births (April-March) 16.3 15.9 15.3 15.6 15.8 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6
Total Deaths (April-March) 6.2 6.6 6.5 7.2 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.3
Total Natural Increase (April-March) 10.1 9.3 8.8 8.4 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.4 8.3
Total Households (as of April) 471.2 482.7 489.1 496.7 502.4 510.8 519.7 528.5 536.6 545.1 554.1
Total Household Formation (April-March) 7.5 11.6 6.3 7.7 5.6 8.5 8.8 8.8 8.1 8.5 9.0
Population by 5-year Cohorts  2017 2018 2019 Estimate 2020 Estimate  2021 Forecast   2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026 Forecast   2027
0-4 78.7 79.2 79.7 79.6 79.0 78.8 79.3 79.5 80.0 80.4 81.1
5-9 79.1 80.2 80.0 79.3 81.5 80.9 79.8 79.5 79.1 78.7 78.6
10-14 69.2 71.9 74.6 77.0 77.8 79.2 80.6 81.7 82.1 82.2 81.7
15-19 68.7 69.6 70.9 70.8 72.6 73.7 74.9 75.8 77.8 80.0 81.4
20-24 77.5 77.0 78.2 78.9 79.7 80.2 81.1 82.1 82.1 81.9 83.2
25-29 102.5 100.1 98.1 97.4 97.3 98.1 97.6 98.0 98.0 99.0 100.0
30-34 114.3 114.0 113.0 113.8 114.3 115.1 116.6 116.2 115.4 115.6 116.6
35-39 104.6 107.8 110.8 115.8 114.8 119.0 122.2 125.6 128.0 128.7 129.6
40-44 95.3 96.6 98.2 101.8 102.8 106.7 111.2 116.1 120.2 125.1 129.4
45-49 87.7 90.1 91.3 93.2 93.9 96.0 98.8 100.8 103.7 107.1 111.1
50-54 86.4 85.2 83.9 84.0 86.4 87.2 88.0 90.6 93.1 95.1 97.2
55-59 81.6 82.6 83.2 83.1 83.9 83.2 82.4 81.4 81.6 82.1 82.8
60-64 65.0 69.1 72.1 73.9 74.9 75.9 77.0 77.6 77.1 76.5 75.7
65-69 48.2 50.2 52.5 55.2 56.4 59.6 62.0 64.6 67.2 69.3 70.3
70-74 31.4 34.7 37.8 40.1 41.2 42.7 45.2 48.1 49.7 51.5 54.4
75-79 22.2 23.5 24.9 25.8 26.8 28.4 30.1 30.9 33.4 35.7 37.1
80-84 16.9 17.4 17.6 17.7 18.4 19.0 19.2 19.9 20.5 21.4 22.6
85-89 11.1 11.6 11.8 11.8 12.2 12.3 12.2 12.4 12.7 12.6 13.0
90-99 5.9 6.3 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.1 8.2
100+ 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Total

1,246.3

1,267.3

1,285.7

1,306.4

1,321.3

1,343.5

1,366.2

1,388.9

1,409.7

1,431.5

1,454.4
2017 2018 2019 Estimate  2020 Estimate  2021 Forecast   2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026 Forecast   2027
Youth (12-18) 81.5 83.4 85.1 86.7 89.1 90.6 93.1 95.5 97.0 98.1 99.2
Primary School Age 6-17 173.3 177.7 180.7 182.9 186.2 188.3 190.5 192.0 192.8 193.5 194.3
Working Age 15-65 883.4 892.2 899.7 912.7 920.5 935.1 949.8 964.2 976.9 991.1 1,007.0
Seniors 65+ 136.0 143.9 151.6 157.9 162.5 169.5 176.6 184.0 191.6 199.0 206.0
Super Seniors 85+ 17.2 18.1 18.9 19.1 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.4 20.9 21.1 21.6
Female Super Seniors 85+ 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.1 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.8
             
Average Age

37.0

37.2

37.5

37.6

37.7 

37.9

38.1

38.3

38.5

38.7

38.8

Numbers may not add up due to rounding

Table 5 - Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) Population Projection

FORECAST COMPLETED: April 2022

(thousands of persons)
2017 2018 2019 2020  2021 Forecast   2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026 Forecast   2027
Total Population (as of July) 1,458.3 1,483.5 1,514.5 1,544.9 1,559.4 1,591.4 1,619.4 1,647.3 1,673.7 1,700.6 1,728.2
Total Population Growth Rate (%) (July-June) 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.0 0.9 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6
Total Net Migration (July-June) 11.6 17.3 20.9 21.2 6.9 19.9 20.1 20.1 18.9 19.6 20.5
Net Migration 18-24 (July-June) 3.6 4.5 5.4 5.0 2.4 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.0
Net Migration 28-40 (July-June) 2.5 4.8 5.6 6.7 2.8 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.0 5.2 5.4
Total Births (July-June) 18.3 18.0 17.4 17.3 17.8 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.9
Total Deaths (July-June) 6.9 7.3 7.3 7.5 8.3 8.6 9.7 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.8
Total Natural Increase (July-June) 11.4 10.7 10.1 9.7 9.5 9.1 8.0 7.8 7.5 7.3 7.1
Population by 5-year Cohorts  2017 2018 2019  2020  2021 Forecast   2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026 Forecast   2027
0-4 91.4 91.2 90.9 90.0 86.9 87.3 87.8 88.8 90.0 91.7 92.0
5-9 93.4 93.7 93.9 94.2 94.6 95.5 96.2 96.3 95.6 94.0 94.4
10-14 84.2 87.6 90.9 94.1 95.8 97.8 98.9 99.6 100.2 101.7 102.7
15-19 82.2 83.3 84.9 86.6 87.1 90.9 95.3 99.3 103.1 106.2 108.3
20-24 91.5 91.7 93.5 94.8 94.4 95.3 96.5 98.4 100.2 102.5 106.4
25-29 115.4 114.0 112.4 110.5 107.6 107.7 108.4 109.8 111.3 112.8 113.8
30-34 129.6 129.2 129.7 131.2 129.6 128.3 127.3 124.7 121.9 120.6 120.8
35-39 122.7 126.9 131.2 134.8 136.7 137.9 137.9 138.1 138.5 137.9 136.7
40-44 110.7 113.0 116.4 120.4 124.0 128.2 132.6 136.8 139.8 142.2 143.4
45-49 103.3 105.3 107.2 109.4 110.6 112.6 115.0 118.1 121.5 125.2 129.4
50-54 97.5 96.4 96.0 96.8 99.1 101.6 103.9 105.6 107.6 109.0 111.0
55-59 94.9 96.0 97.0 97.3 96.0 94.8 93.8 93.3 93.9 96.4 98.9
60-64 79.2 83.0 86.7 89.4 91.0 92.3 93.6 94.4 94.5 93.5 92.4
65-69 57.6 60.5 64.8 69.0 73.2 77.8 81.5 84.7 87.3 89.2 90.4
70-74 39.7 43.5 47.1 51.0 54.2 56.4 59.1 62.9 66.7 71.0 75.3
75-79 26.2 28.0 30.0 32.0 34.1 37.7 41.2 44.2 47.7 50.7 52.4
80-84 19.1 19.7 20.4 21.1 22.0 23.1 24.4 25.9 27.3 29.1 32.3
85-89 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.8 16.6
90+ 7.2 7.6 8.2 8.6 8.8 12.2 11.8 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.3

Total

1,458.3

1,483.5

1,514.5

1,544.9

1,559.4

1,591.4

1,619.4

1,647.3

1,673.7

1,700.6

1,728.2
Average Age

37.0

37.3

37.6

37.8

38.2

38.5

38.6

38.8

39.0

39.2

39.4

Numbers may not add up due to rounding

Table 6 - Calgary Economic Region (CER) Population Projection

FORECAST COMPLETED: April 2022

(thousands of persons)
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Forecast   2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026 Forecast   2027
Total Population (as of July) 1,567.8 1,593.2 1,624.9 1,655.9 1,670.5 1,700.3 1,729.4 1,758.6 1,786.4 1,815.0 1,844.6
Total Population Growth Rate (%) (July-June) 1.3 1.6 2.0 1.9 0.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6
Total Net Migration (July-June) 9.2 14.7 21.5 21.6 7.1 21.3 21.1 21.4 20.4 21.6 23.0
Total Births (July-June) 19.1 18.8 18.3 17.9 17.2 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.1 19.2
Total Deaths (July-June) 7.6 8.1 8.0 8.5 11.5 10.6 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.6
Total Natural Increase (July-June) 11.5 10.6 10.3 9.4 5.7 8.3 8.0 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.6
Population by 5-year Cohorts  2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Forecast   2022 Forecast   2023 Forecast   2024 Forecast   2025 Forecast   2026 Forecast   2027
0-4 97.4 97.0 96.6 95.7 92.3 92.6 93.3 94.5 96.0 98.2 98.6
5-9 100.8 100.9 100.9 101.2 101.6 102.1 102.3 102.0 100.8 98.5 99.0
10-14 91.8 95.4 98.9 102.2 103.9 105.3 105.7 105.8 105.9 107.0 107.6
15-19 89.2 90.4 92.2 93.9 94.6 98.3 102.3 105.7 109.1 111.6 113.2
20-24 97.3 97.4 99.3 100.7 100.2 101.4 103.0 105.0 106.8 109.2 113.2
25-29 120.8 119.4 118.0 116.1 113.1 113.4 114.2 115.9 117.8 119.6 121.1
30-34 135.8 135.2 135.6 137.1 135.5 135.2 134.9 133.3 130.9 130.1 130.6
35-39 129.8 133.9 138.1 141.4 143.1 144.4 144.6 145.1 146.2 146.3 146.1
40-44 118.0 120.3 123.5 127.4 131.0 135.3 139.8 144.1 147.2 149.7 151.1
45-49 111.0 113.0 114.7 116.7 117.8 119.8 122.4 125.7 129.5 133.4 137.8
50-54 105.4 104.1 103.5 104.4 106.7 109.4 111.6 113.3 115.1 116.5 118.5
55-59 103.3 104.4 105.4 105.5 103.9 102.6 101.6 101.1 101.9 104.4 107.1
60-64 86.8 90.8 94.6 97.4 99.0 100.3 101.6 102.6 102.5 101.5 100.2
65-69 63.8 66.9 71.5 76.0 80.4 85.3 89.2 92.5 95.2 97.2 98.5
70-74 44.4 48.6 52.6 56.7 60.2 62.4 65.2 69.1 73.2 77.6 82.1
75-79 29.2 31.2 33.5 35.7 38.0 41.8 45.5 48.7 52.1 55.4 57.3
80-84 21.1 21.7 22.5 23.4 24.4 25.3 26.7 28.3 29.8 31.6 34.8
85-89 13.9 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.7 17.4
90+ 7.9 8.3 9.0 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.6

Total

1,567.8

1,593.2

1,624.9

1,655.9

1,670.5

1,700.3

1,729.4

1,758.6

1,786.4

1,815.0

1,844.6
Average Age

37.2

37.5

37.8

38.0

38.4

38.6

38.8

39.0

39.2

39.4

39.6

Numbers may not add up due to rounding

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